758
FXUS61 KBOX 150642
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
242 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SKIES
CLEAR AS THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION DOMINATES, AND HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EASTERN COASTAL MA WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE REGION DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MA, RI, AND INTO THE
CT VALLEY
* ANOTHER DRY, QUIET DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACH 0F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA, RI, AND
THE CT VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GO LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, FAVORING
PATCHY FOG. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ONCE MORE, WITH THE EASTERN COASTS AND URBAN AREAS REMAINING ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE KEEPING THE EASTERN COASTLINES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S; SOME SPOTS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S IN
THE CT VALLEY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE A
BIT OF A SPREAD REGARDING THE PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE MASS PIKE OR FURTHER NORTH AT THIS TIME.
THE GEFS LEANS THE DRIEST, KEEPING IT ALL SOUTH OF I-90, WHILE THE
ECMWF ENS HAS UP TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL UP TO
BOSTON BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE RANGE BETWEEN
PROBS, ENSEMBLES DO AGREE THAT TOTALS WILL NOT EXCEED 0.2". MEAN
PWAT VALUES ALSO ONLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.1" AND 1.3" AT THEIR GREATEST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, USHERING IN MORE
AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. 925 MB TEMPERATURES GO
FROM AROUND 15C WHERE THEY SIT ALL WEEK DOWN TO 10C (AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER) FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F AND LOWS DIP
INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ONCE MORE FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONTINUING THE DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN AREAS THAT SAW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. CALM TO LIGHT N/NW WINDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. ENE TO NE WINDS 5-10 KTS. LOCAL SEABREEZES EXPECTED MID
MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND PRIMARILY N
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. E FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS REMAINING BELOW 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH E WINDS BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HRENCECIN
NEAR TERM...HRENCECIN
SHORT TERM...HRENCECIN
LONG TERM...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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