947
FXUS61 KBOX 160532
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
132 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG FOR
SOME
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER, BUT MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT N TO NE FLOW AT MOST, WITH QUITE A
FEW PLACES GOING CALM. THIS WILL FOSTER FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS
SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE BIT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, SO INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL
TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOST AREAS WAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-84
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION. GEFS ENSEMBLES KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF I-84 WITH
PROBABILITES OF QPF >0.1" OR GREATER BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT.
THE ECMWF ENS IS STILL A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH COVERAGE AND
PAINTS A BROAD AREA OF 40-50% PROBS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. IN
ANY CASE, ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING WILL,
UNFORTUNATELY, PREVENT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EVENT. MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BUT DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S AND 925MB TEMPS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8C OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GEFS SHOWS 850 MB
TEMP ANOMALIES AS LOW AS 5-10C BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY WHICH
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60SF AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CALM WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR
ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS RH VALUES
POTENTIALLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 30% ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DRY,
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER, WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, BUT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR (AND EVEN SOME LIFR)
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOW- LYING LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY MUCH OF EASTERN
MA. WINDS REMAINING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. WINDS BECOME E AGAIN AT
5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LOW RISK FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND, AND ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR WITH PATCHES OF MVFR IN SHRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS E UP TO 10 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z.
LIFR POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THOUGH NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LONG-LIVED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING LOW, THOUGH
COULD DRIFT BETWEEN BKN AND SCT/FEW UNTIL 11Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS TIME. COULD SEE MARGINAL
5 FOOT SEAS TOWARDS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
THINKING THAT WE MAINLY HAVE SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...BELK/DOOLEY/HRENCECIN/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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