389
FXUS61 KBOX 171727
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
127 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES OFFSHORE. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THIS
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, THEN A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BREAK OUT ONCE AGAIN TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SETTLED TO OUR EAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT, CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS ANY
NORTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING
* SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY GOES ON TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA, ALLOWING
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT SHOWERS MAY VENTURE FURTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL REMAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, BUT EVEN
THEN, TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0.2" THERE. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MORE MILD
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S; LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN CENTERS
AND ALONG THE COASTS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST.
CLEARER SKIES WILL PREVAIL FROM WEST TO EAST, FAVORING WARMER HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE INTERIOR. MID TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR EASTERN MA AND RI WHERE LEFTOVER CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND DRY FRIDAY
* DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT THURSDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND 15C, KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALONG THE COASTS). WARM AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHTLY BREEZIER NW WINDS. THE COLDER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T MOVE IN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
ONCE AGAIN AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES STAY JUST BELOW 20C IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 40S WITH SOME SPOTS IN NW MA
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, DECREASING WINDS AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE
30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, THE LACK OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 60S, EVEN STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10C DURING THE DAY AFTER
DIPPING BELOW 10C OVERNIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S OVER NW MA DUE TO
EXPECTED STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
RESULT, INCREASING TEMPS TO START THE WEEK; ENSEMBLES ARE ALREADY
INDICATING PROBABILITIES AROUND 35 TO 50 PERCENT FOR TEMPERATURES OF
80+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z... MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING OVER CAPE/ISLANDS TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY PVD
BEFORE 00Z AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.'
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, LOWER IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS OVER NIGHT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND
ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SHOWERS, THUS MADE A GENEROUS USE OF PROB30
GROUPS WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR BOS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND -SHRA EARLY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN
15-17Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BECOME NORTHEAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA POTENTIAL. MOST
LIKELY TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN 06-12Z PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS FALL TO 3 FT OR LOWER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND
REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
INFREQUENT. TOMORROW, WINDS SHIFT MORE N AND W OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND MORE S OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, FALLING BELOW 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/HRENCECIN/RM
NEAR TERM...HRENCECIN
SHORT TERM...HRENCECIN/RM
LONG TERM...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/RM
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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