869
FXUS61 KBOX 031711
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
111 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUED SPELL OF
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING
TREND TO TEMPERATURES BEGINS TODAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A WELCOMED RAINFALL. A PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD COOLER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF MID-
AUTUMN THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
320 AM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGE:
* SUNNY AND DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO TEMPS, TO GO ALONG WITH
MODEST SW BREEZES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.
DETAILS:
CENTER OF A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN CT EARLY THIS MORNING, LEADING TO TRANQUIL IF COOLER
WEATHER. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE AS EXPECTED,
WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WITH AN MODEST
INCREASE IN THE SWLY PRESSURE GRADIENT/SW WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
IT'S LIKELY THAT BY SUNRISE THE COOLEST READINGS END UP OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD. A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
THE COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER WE SAW YESTERDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE UNDERGOING A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MILD, WARMER
WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
THEME WHICH HAS BEEN EMBLEMATIC OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY, AND AS A
SUBTLE SFC TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST, IT WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH BY THE LATE MORNING. THIS
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP SOUTH-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN INLAND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FURTHER
INLAND, INCREASING 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND +13C, FULL SUN AND
CONTINUED DRYNESS WILL FAVOR HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
320 AM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER, BUT LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
* WARM AND DRY SAT, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
DETAILS:
TONIGHT:
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. SW
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN THE INTERIOR, BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH OF A SW WIND NEAR THE RI/EASTERN MA AREA TO ALLOW FOR MILDER
LOW TEMPS. DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE LEVELS TICK UP SLIGHTLY SO WE COULD
SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS BUT
IT'S LIKELY STILL TOO DRY ELSEWHERE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD END UP BEING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER, IN THE MID 40S
TO THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY:
LIKELY TO BE THE FIRST OF A FEW DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THIS OCCURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUPPLYING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN. 925 MB TEMPS TO RISE TO
THE +15 TO +17C RANGE. LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER;
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO NOT REALLY HUMID, BUT YOU MAY PERCEIVE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVEL WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHERWISE, MILD/WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUN AND MON, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.
* STILL WARM AND DRY FOR TUE, BUT SOUTHERLY BREEZES COULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE SUSTAINED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
* STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN WED BRINGING A WELCOMED RAIN; ALTHOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, A SOAKING RAIN ISN'T LIKELY.
* MID-AUTUMN FEEL LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BLUSTERY NORTHERLY BREEZES.
DETAILS:
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SAT, THAT
BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
WINDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER AND THAT COULD FAVOR COOLING SEABREEZES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS COMPARED TO SAT. BUT HIGHS AGAIN TOP OUT
WELL IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS, WITH MILD
NIGHTTIME LOWS (MID 50S/NEAR 60).
TUESDAY:
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUE, AS WE AWAIT A RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES EITHER LATER TUE NIGHT OR INTO WED. WHAT
THIS WILL DO IS ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SWLY GRADIENT FLOW TO TAKE
HOLD, AND WE COULD SEE SWLY BREEZES AROUND 20-25 MPH. RH'S MIGHT BE
BORDERLINE/ON THE HIGHER SIDE, BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS HAVING HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT AND THE SW BREEZES,
TUE COULD BE A DAY WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HIGHS 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY TUE
EVENING SUPPORTING A POTENTIALLY REALLY MILD TUE NIGHT (LOW-MID 60S
LOWS).
WEDNESDAY:
GENERALLY OVERCAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT SOME POINT ON WED PER GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MEANS, BRINGING A WELCOMED RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AS MUCH AS 1.5", SO SOME ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FOR
THE FRONT TO WORK WITH; BUT NOTABLE THAT ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY THAT BULLISH ON RAIN TOTALS, WITH HIGH CHANCES (70-90%)
OF 24 HR RAINS OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT LOW (< 30%) PROBS
OF 24 HR RAINS OF A HALF-INCH OR MORE. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT
THIS COULD BE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
LATE NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER, WITH A TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A STRONG (1030+ MB) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
CANADA. 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS! LOOKS
DRY, BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR FAVORED, AND SOME AREAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES THU-FRI.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT, EXCEPT 12-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
LIGHT W ON SAT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST TODAY AT AROUND 10-15 KT, THOUGH NEAR 20 KT
NEARSHORE. LIGHTER WSW WINDS EXPECTED FOR SAT. SEAS MAINLY 4FT
OR LESS ON ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/MCMINN
MARINE...LOCONTO
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