891
FXUS61 KBOX 031923
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. MUCH COOLER/DRIER
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
* CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE TODAY. WINDS WILL START TO CALM
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL JUMP START SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY WON'T BE A CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND DRY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
80S.
DETAILS:
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE START OF A WARMING TREND LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY NEAR 80 OR JUST ABOVE WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW WINDS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE 35 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 55 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE FOR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM SUN/MON/TUE...HIGHS UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S
* A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS SOMETIME TUE NIGHT INTO WED
* MUCH COOLER/DRY WEATHER BY THU AND FRI
DETAILS...
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUMP A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
850T AROUND +14C/+15C SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH EVEN SOME MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. WEAK
GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT STRENGTHENS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY WHEN WE EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. SO ANY
MODIFIED MARINE COOLING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. TIMING REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RAIN
EXTENDS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE DO EXPECT MUCH
OF THE REGION TO SEE A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SOAKING RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...BUT MANY LOCATIONS
MAY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW A HALF INCH. IF WE DEVELOP SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND A RISK THUNDER...THEN AMOUNTS MAY
CERTAINLY BE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S AND WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT, EXCEPT 12-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
LIGHT W ON SAT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
TODAY AT AROUND 10-15 KT, THOUGH NEAR 20 KT NEARSHORE. LIGHTER
WSW WINDS EXPECTED FOR SAT. SEAS MAINLY 4FT OR LESS ON ALL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...MCMINN
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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