266
FXUS61 KBOX 071736
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
136 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
MONITORING A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BEFORE THAT THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A PERIOD OF
STRATUS AND VERY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA, INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THIS
STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK, TAKING LONGEST TOWARDS
NANTUCKET.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* RAIN ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
* MAY REACH THE EAST COAST OF MA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL THINKING A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DRYING
STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MA. MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
REALLY LIKED THE TIMING PROVIDED BY THE 00Z HREF, AND THAT
BECAME THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES SHOULD LEAD TO A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.5-1.0 WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. NOT
SEEING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISMISS THE IDEA COMPLETELY DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THEY PERSIST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER THU & FRI, WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S THU NIGHT AND FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS
* POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID COASTAL STORM TO BRING SOME RAIN/GUSTY
WINDS SUN INTO MON BUT ONLY IT IT GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTH
DETAILS...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR REGION FOR THU AND FRI. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BUT
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. 850T DROP TO AROUND 0C...SO QUITE THE
CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT WEATHER. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL ONLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION THU NIGHT WILL BRING AN IDEAL NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
THINKING THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO. LOW TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THU NIGHT
ALONG WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST BECOMES
QUITE COMPLEX BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL BE WATCHING A
POTENTIAL HYBRID COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
SYSTEM WILL GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN/GUSTY WINDS
TO THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR STAYS SOUTH AND WE
REMAIN DRY. NOT MUCH MORE TO SAY AT THIS POINT AND MIGHT BE A
FEW DAYS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON RAIN TIMING.
VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR UNDER RA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. EXPECTING AROUND 35KTS OF
WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB
WINDS OF 40-45 KTS. WITH A SURGE OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THERE'S A CHANCE SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP BEFORE THE RA
BEGINS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR UNDER RA. VFR DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, REACHING THE COAST TOWARDS EVENING.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON REST OF TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON RAIN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS.
EXPECTING INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. CONTINUED, AND
IN SOME CASES EXPANDED, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO MARGINAL GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT. MARGINAL
5 FT SEAS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...BELK/FRANK
AVIATION...MCMINN/KP
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
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