752
FXUS61 KBOX 081154
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
754 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY, BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS WELL. MONITORING A POSSIBLE COASTAL
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL TRACK
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING US SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL IT DOES, LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS
THERE. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM LIGHTNING, BUT DID KEEP A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
STILL THINKING MOST AREAS RECEIVE BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH
FLOODING, ALTHOUGH COMMON POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD SEE LARGE
PUDDLES, ESPECIALLY LEAF LITTER STARTING TO COLLECT WITH FALL
UNDERWAY. NOT IDEAL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, DO TAKE YOUR TIME
HEADING OUT THE DOOR.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTICEABLY COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT LIKELY MEANS THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS MORNING, DESPITE THE
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, AND HEADS OUR WAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
OF THE HIGH ELEVATION COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA (AOA
1,500 FT) DIP DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY/MUCH COOLER FRI. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 20S/30S WITH FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS
* REMAINING DRY SAT WITH HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER
60S
* POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID COASTAL STORM TO BRING SOME RAIN/GUSTY
WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY REMAIN SOUTH KEEPING US DRY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THU NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THE DRY/COOL
AIRMASS OVERHEAD, THINKING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
CONTINUES.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOLLOWS FOR FRI AND AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A TAD. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRI COMPARED TO THU, SO IT WILL FEEL
MILDER BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE, BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER SAT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE
WATCHING A POTENTIAL HYBRID COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN/GUSTY SOMETIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR STAYS SOUTH AND WE REMAIN DRY. WE STILL NEED
A FEW MORE DAYS UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH, THE ONE THING WE NOTICED WAS THAT THE EPS TENDED TO BE
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE EPS AI VERSION, WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO
MENTION THAT IF THE STORM DOES COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THERE WILL
BE A MINOR COASTAL FLOODING RISK AS WE WILL JUST BE COMING OFF
KING TIDES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN. MODERATE
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW RISK FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR 15-16Z, THE COASTAL PLAIN 17-19Z AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS, CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR LEVELS FROM NW TO SE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 13-16Z,
SHIFTING WINDS TO NW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS TOWARD THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
RAIN EXPECTED TODAY, LINGERING THROUGH 19Z. COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS 14-16Z, SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY, LOW RISK FOR BRIEF IFR.
IMPROVING TOWARD VFR 19-22Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH AREAS
OF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NARRAGANSETT BAY. MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER
VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS AND MAY EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS
TONIGHT IN THE STRONG COOL ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MAZ005-009>014-017-018-020-021.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-
237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
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