659
FXUS61 KBOX 260640
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
240 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR
SIDE AT THIS POINT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* PARTLY SUNNY & COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
DETAILS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BRING US ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY
AND COOL DAY OF WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT PARTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.
NNW WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AT SPEEDS OF 5-15 MPH. DRY
WEATHER IS ON TAP AS WELL, OUTSIDE A LOW RISK OF A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH COOL
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY & CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S & 30S
* PARTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY WITH A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE CAPE/ACK
* HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S
DETAILS...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET AS LIGHT NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40.
MONDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO QUEBEC TO START THE
WORK WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NNE
AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MA AND
ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/NANTUCKET AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG. DRY WEATHER
GENERALLY ANTICIPATED, BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* COOL NE FLOW TUE/WED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
* STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN/GUSTY WINDS SOMETIME THU INTO FRI
* JUST MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
DETAILS...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTEN REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX THIS WEEK...SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND WED. AT
THE SAME TIME...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC TO GENERATE MODEST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING
US ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL MOIST NE FLOW WILL
BEING A SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUE AND WED. THE
RAW NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
A SECOND PIECE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT HEADS FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND ALSO A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE EARLY WEEK
WAVE...PERHAPS MORE OF AN INLAND RUNNER. MEANWHILE...CURRENTLY MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE OPEN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE THIS HURRICANE WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR REGION...IT MAY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK/TIMING ON
OUR LATE WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SO IN A NUTSHELL...THU INTO FRI IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE MINOR SIDE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE MAY WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE MIX DOWN POTENTIAL AND ALSO THE DURATION OF THE RAIN. IN
ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW SO EVEN THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE JUST SPLASHOVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT SATURDAY
WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME BRIEF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY
NEAR THE CAPE/NANTUCKET. NNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING TO THE
NNE AT THE SAME SPEEDS ON MONDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NNW TODAY SHIFTING
TO THE NNE ON MONDAY. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT SOME 20 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
12 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
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