924
FXUS61 KBOX 261650
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1250 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY. AS THIS
HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE AT THIS POINT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* PARTLY SUNNY & COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
DETAILS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BRING US ANOTHER PARTLY
SUNNY AND COOL DAY OF WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S...BUT PARTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 40S. NNW WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AT SPEEDS
OF 5-15 MPH. DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP AS WELL, OUTSIDE A LOW RISK
OF A BRIEF PASSING SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH COOL LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY & CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S & 30S
* PARTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY WITH A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE CAPE/ACK
* HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S
DETAILS...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND
CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE MILD
SPOTS WILL BE THE CAPE/NANTUCKET AS LIGHT NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 40.
MONDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO QUEBEC TO START
THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
MORE NNE AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MA
AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/NANTUCKET AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG. DRY
WEATHER GENERALLY ANTICIPATED, BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOW LEVEL NNE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* COOL NE FLOW TUE/WED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST
* STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN/GUSTY WINDS SOMETIME THU INTO FRI
* JUST MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
DETAILS...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTEN REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX THIS WEEK, SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
AND WED. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS WILL COMBINED
WITH A 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC TO GENERATE
MODEST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, LOW LEVEL MOIST NE FLOW WILL BEING A SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUE AND WED. THE RAW NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
A SECOND PIECE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT HEADS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND ALSO A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE
EARLY WEEK WAVE, PERHAPS MORE OF AN INLAND RUNNER. MEANWHILE,
CURRENTLY MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST WELL
TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE
THIS HURRICANE WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION, IT MAY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK/TIMING ON OUR LATE WEEK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
SO IN A NUTSHELL, THU INTO FRI IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE MINOR SIDE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE MAY WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE MIX DOWN POTENTIAL AND ALSO THE DURATION OF THE RAIN.
IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW SO EVEN THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE JUST SPLASHOVER/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
SATURDAY...
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME BRIEF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY
NEAR THE CAPE/NANTUCKET. NNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TODAY SHIFTING TO
THE NNE AT THE SAME SPEEDS ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AREAS TONIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT N WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NNW TODAY
SHIFTING TO THE NNE ON MONDAY. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT SOME 20 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
12 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/KP
MARINE...FRANK
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