754
FXUS61 KBOX 291827
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
227 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW NIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY, BUT TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH VERY GUSTY TO
STRONG WEST WIND GUSTS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT INTO EARLY ON
SATURDAY. DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TO TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE OVERCAST SKIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BLANKET
OF MARINE STRATUS BETWEEN 1000-3000 FEET. KBOX RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN MA, LIKELY
BEING DRIVEN BY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A SUBTLE AREA OF MID-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG
SHOWERS LAST, BUT WE MAY SEE SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DIFFLUENT ZONE ERODES AFTER 00Z.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THUS, LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE COMPARABLE
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY
MORE MILD NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST MA AND RI'
* GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
25-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN
INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TOMORROW.
925 AND 850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO 7C AND 10C RESPECTIVELY, THUS EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MORE MILD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
ROUGHLY SSW TO NNE. PWATS SURGE TO OVER AN INCH AND LIKELY 1.25
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MA, RI, AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 1-2" FORECAST FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VALUES AS HIGH AS 2-4
INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF RI, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE MODERATE RAINFALL, WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS WELL WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON (SEE LONG
TERM AFD). OVERALL A WET AND WINDY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* TRENDING DRIER FRI, BUT VERY GUSTY TO STRONG W/NW WIND GUSTS FOR
HALLOWEEN NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WIND HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED IN
SOME LOCATIONS (CAPE AND ISLANDS, INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BEST
CHANCE).
* MORE SUN AND DRIER WITH DECREASING NW WIND GUSTS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRIER WEATHER.
DETAILS:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOAKING, WIND-SWEPT RAINS THURS
NIGHT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI/FRI
NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT. ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRI IN NORTHERN MA, WE SHOULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF FRI, ALBEIT WITH A STILL
PRETTY CONSIDERABLE WRAP-AROUND RH LAYER SUPPORTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR FRI. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR
SAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT IS VERY GUSTY TO
STRONG W TO NW WIND GUSTS. WHILE WIND GUSTS DURING THE MORNING
SHOULD BE ON THE MORE MODEST SIDE, W TO EVENTUALLY NW WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING MARKEDLY DURING THE FRI AFTN AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO EFFICIENT MIXING GIVEN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 925-850 MB JETSTREAK OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOWN IN
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT, ACTING IN CONCERT WITH RATHER STRONG 6-HOURLY
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 6 TO 10 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCUR HALLOWEEN NIGHT WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 25-35 MPH (ISOLATED
TO 40 MPH) IN THE LOWER NON-COASTAL ELEVATIONS, AROUND 35-45 MPH
(ISOLATED TO 50 MPH) OVER THE WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AND THE
BERKSHIRES, AND IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
WILL WANT TO REASSESS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE WIND GUIDANCE BETWEEN
CONSIDERING WIND HEADLINES BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORIES EXISTS
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS; WEAKENED TREES
OR THOSE WITH SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEMS WOULD BE MORE VULNERABLE TO BEING
DOWNED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED RAINS OCCURRING ABOUT 12 HRS PRIOR TO
THE STRONGER GUSTS, AND COULD ALSO CREATE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT TRICK O' TREATERS. IF YOU DO HAVE
TIME, IT WOULD BE ADVISABLE TO MAKE SURE ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN DECOR
IS SECURED AS WIND GUSTS THIS STRONG SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING
THEM AND/OR FLY AROUND.
WE SHOULD SEE NW GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE EARLY SATURDAY
GIVEN MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR A BIT HIGHER MIXING BEFORE GUSTS
STEADILY DECREASE INTO SAT AFTN.
HIGHS FRI IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S (NOTE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR HILLS RUNNING AROUND
FREEZING WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS), AND DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE SAT,
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGS DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY, TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND TO
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT IS STILL
EVIDENT SO LEFT THE VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NBM WAS ADVERTISING
FOR MON/TUE BUT ODDS APPEARING TO BE FAVORING DRIER WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z... MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MVFR AND STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS, -SHRA AND 5SM VSBYS AT BOS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z AND PERHAPS BEYOND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE FOR EXACT TIMING OF RAIN.
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AFTER 18Z WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR LEVELS AROUND 1000 FEET. STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY 21-00Z.
THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH STEADY RA WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY OVER PVD, CAPE, AND ISLANDS TERMINALS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY BETWEEN 00-06Z OVER SE TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CURRENT SHOWERS/MVFR VSBYS MAY LAST.
THINKING AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AFTER 18Z AS MORE RA
SPREADS OVER THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SHRA, PATCHY BR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
STEADY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED 10-20 KNOT WINDS AND 25+ KNOT GUSTS. AN AREA OF LOW-
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AND NEAR-GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8PM THURSDAY THROUGH
8PM SATURDAY. GUSTS LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY EVENING AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT 25-35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS. 7-10 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER MARINE
WATERS TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUILD TO 11-15 FEET
OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 17 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 15 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO/RM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/RM
MARINE...LOCONTO/RM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page