872
FXUS61 KBOX 301835
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN DECREASES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG WEST WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY,
PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY, BREEZY TODAY WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.
* RAIN WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM ARRIVES BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING.
DETAILS...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD 1000MB LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. ALOFT, A DEEP AND NEGATIVELY-TILED 500MB TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. AS EXPECTED, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS HAVE BEGUN
STREAMING NORTH WITH VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
A BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AS A POTENT
FRONTAL AXIS DEVELOPS AS SEEN IN THE INCREASING 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS OVER PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. FURTHER NORTH WE ARE STILL
WAITING FOR THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE. A RAW ONSHORE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT PERIODIC DRIZZLE AND FOG TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND AND NUMEROUS METARS REPORT SUB 2 MILE VISIBILITY AND LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET, BUT A SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT:
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN GRADUALLY
DECREASES FROM SW TO NE AFTER 2AM AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST AND A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (PMM) AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE HELD
STEADY WITH THE IDEA OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW HREF MEMBERS HIGHLIGHT THE LOW PROBABILITY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY. AS THE HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERS TONIGHT, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR DRAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN OBSTRUCTED BY FALLEN LEAVES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* VERY GUSTY TO STRONG W/NW WIND GUSTS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. WIND HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED IN SOME LOCATIONS (CAPE
AND ISLANDS, INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BEST CHANCE).
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A DRY SLOT INITIATING A DRYING TREND. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW WRAP
AROUND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS, SHOWING A CORE OF 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO NEARLY
800MB, PLENTY HIGH TO EASILY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS IN THE INTERIOR
AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR
60 DEGREES LIKELY PROMOTES BETTER MIXING. CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS UNFORTUNATELY ARRIVE BY HALLOWEEN EVENING.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING GUSTS TO APPROACH 35-45 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND AS HIGH AS 50 MPH FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO THE
40S FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S DURING THE COLDEST PART OF THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH DECREASING NW WIND GUSTS THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES, WHILE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA. THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS, BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EVEN CLOSER FOR
SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN
FROM WEST TO EAST. E GUSTS TO 25 KT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
SNE. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND SE MA 00-06Z.
RAIN DIMINISHES FROM SW TO NE 06-12Z. E WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
NEAR THE COAST WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW 08-12Z. AREAS OF LLWS FOR
SE TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAIN EXITS MUCH OF THE REGION BY 12Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT MVFR PROBABLY LINGERING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP. INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT POSSIBLE OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AFTER
21Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN WESTERN MA. W-SW GUSTS TO 30-40
KT IN THE EVENING, WITH G45 KT OVER CAPE/ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BECOMING IFR WITH
AREAS OF LIFR AS HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING,
TAPERING OFF 09-12Z. WIND SHIFT TO SW TOWARD 12Z WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING FRI
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BECOMING IFR AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF
AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF MVFR PERSISTING MUCH OF FRIDAY. WIND SHIFT
TO SW AROUND 09Z WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AND NEAR- GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8PM THURSDAY THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING TODAY. GUSTS LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
EVENING AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT 25-35
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS. 7-10
FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER MARINE WATERS TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUILD TO 11-15 FEET OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 16 FT.
SATURDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
14 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-
250-254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ233>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...LOCONTO/MENSCH
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...MENSCH
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