203
FXUS61 KBOX 310624
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
224 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN DECREASES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG WEST WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY,
PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY, BREEZY TODAY WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.
* RAIN WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM ARRIVES BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING.
DETAILS...
TONIGHT:
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN GRADUALLY
DECREASES FROM SW TO NE AFTER 2AM AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST AND A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (PMM) AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE HELD
STEADY WITH THE IDEA OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW HREF MEMBERS HIGHLIGHT THE LOW PROBABILITY
FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY. AS THE HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERS TONIGHT, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR DRAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN OBSTRUCTED BY FALLEN LEAVES.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF E WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING,
WITH DIMINISHING WIND AFTER 06Z AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* VERY GUSTY TO STRONG W/NW WIND GUSTS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. WIND HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED IN SOME LOCATIONS (CAPE
AND ISLANDS, INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BEST CHANCE).
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A DRY SLOT INITIATING A DRYING TREND. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW WRAP
AROUND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AXIS, SHOWING A CORE OF 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO NEARLY
800MB, PLENTY HIGH TO EASILY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS IN THE INTERIOR
AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR
60 DEGREES LIKELY PROMOTES BETTER MIXING. CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS UNFORTUNATELY ARRIVE BY HALLOWEEN EVENING.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING GUSTS TO APPROACH 35-45 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND AS HIGH AS 50 MPH FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO THE
40S FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S DURING THE COLDEST PART OF THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH DECREASING NW WIND GUSTS THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES, WHILE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA. THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS, BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EVEN CLOSER FOR
SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAIN DIMINISHES FROM SW TO NE 06-12Z. CEILINGS IMPROVE TOWARD
VFR BY 12Z. LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO
SW 08-11Z WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS, LITTLE STRONGER FOR CAPE/ISLANDS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR/MVFR CLOUDS RETURN AFTER 14Z. INCREASING SW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT
POSSIBLE OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AFTER 19Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN WESTERN MA. W-SW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN
THE EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. GUSTS 45 KT
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY W WINDS SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS
20-30 KTS FOR MOST, AND 30-40 KTS FOR CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING. GUSTS DECREASE TO 20-25 KTS, AND 20-30 KTS FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED. EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW BY 12Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR. THIS
MAY BE BRIEF AS LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER 15Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CIGS AND COVERAGE OF
THE CLOUDS (SCT VS BKN). SW GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING AFTER
20Z, CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY 12Z. LOW END VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY
MOVE BACK IN AFTER 14Z. WIND SHIFT TO SW 08-09Z WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AND NEAR- GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8PM THURSDAY THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING TODAY. GUSTS LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
EVENING AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT 25-35
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS. 7-10
FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER MARINE WATERS TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BUILD TO 11-15 FEET OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ232-250-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236-251.
SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...LOCONTO/MENSCH
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...MENSCH
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