648
FXUS61 KBOX 310836
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
436 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN DECREASES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WEST WINDS
ARRIVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY GUSTY TO STRONG W WIND GUSTS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PEAKING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT.
* GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH ALONG FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
DETAILS...
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN EXITED TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN CT AND MA AND A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AM. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
DESPITE DRIER AIR WORKING IN EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SHIFT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT
IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL AND GRADIENT AS
PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A 50-60 KT LLJ SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH CAA THERE SHOULD BE SUPPORT FOR
EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD MID AFTERNOON, CONTINUING FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SHOWING A
MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND 800-850MB WHICH COULD MEAN THAT IF IT
DID END UP MIXING CLOSER TO 850MB, 50KT+ GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THAT SCENARIO. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS HIGH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT GUSTS TO
SOME EXTENT. OVERALL, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT LEAST UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/PM. THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE ALLOWED US TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE EASTERN MA AND RI. SOME AREAS WITH
GUST STRONGER THAN OTHERS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN, IMMEDIATE COAST,
AND CAPE/ISLANDS HAVE THE LARGER RISK FOR HIGHER GUSTS WITH HREF
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING MEDUIM-HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >45MPH
GUSTS FOR THE BERKSHIRES, SPOTS IN WORCESTER HILLS, AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE MAXES SHOW GUSTS 50- 60 MPH IN THE
BERKSHIRES, WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS AND NEARING 50 MPH
FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WAS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, SO IT MAKES SENSE BEING THE LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THE
PEAK GUSTS OF THIS EVEN THIS AFTER 6 PM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S LATER THIS
EVENING; HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND FACTOR IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
30S AND LOW 40S. BUNDLE UP IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS
(TRICK- OR-TREAT).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
DETAILS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY; HOWEVER, WEAKER THAN FRI-FRI NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAIN DIMINISHES FROM SW TO NE 06-12Z. CEILINGS IMPROVE TOWARD
VFR BY 12Z. LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO
SW 08-11Z WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS, LITTLE STRONGER FOR CAPE/ISLANDS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR/MVFR CLOUDS RETURN AFTER 14Z. INCREASING SW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT
POSSIBLE OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AFTER 19Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN WESTERN MA. W-SW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN
THE EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. GUSTS 45 KT
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY W WINDS SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS
20-30 KTS FOR MOST, AND 30-40 KTS FOR CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING. GUSTS DECREASE TO 20-25 KTS, AND 20-30 KTS FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED. EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW BY 12Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR. THIS
MAY BE BRIEF AS LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN AFTER 15Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CIGS AND COVERAGE OF
THE CLOUDS (SCT VS BKN). SW GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING AFTER
20Z, CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY 12Z. LOW END VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY
MOVE BACK IN AFTER 14Z. WIND SHIFT TO SW 08-09Z WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT 25-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. 7-11 FOOT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING BUILD TO 11-16 FEET, HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ232-250-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236-251.
SYNOPSIS...MENSCH
NEAR TERM...MENSCH
SHORT TERM...MENSCH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO/MENSCH
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...MENSCH
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