373
FXUS61 KBOX 311715
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
115 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WEST WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE DAY WEARS
ALONG, PEAKING THIS THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY GUSTY TO STRONG W WIND GUSTS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PEAKING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT.
* GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH ALONG FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
DETAILS...
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN EXITED TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN CT AND MA AND A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AM. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
DESPITE DRIER AIR WORKING IN EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SHIFT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT
IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL AND GRADIENT AS
PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A 50-60 KT LLJ SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH CAA THERE SHOULD BE SUPPORT FOR
EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD MID AFTERNOON, CONTINUING FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SHOWING A
MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND 800-850MB WHICH COULD MEAN THAT IF IT
DID END UP MIXING CLOSER TO 850MB, 50KT+ GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THAT SCENARIO. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS HIGH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT GUSTS TO
SOME EXTENT. OVERALL, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT LEAST UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/PM. THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE ALLOWED US TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE EASTERN MA AND RI. SOME AREAS WITH
GUST STRONGER THAN OTHERS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN, IMMEDIATE COAST,
AND CAPE/ISLANDS HAVE THE LARGER RISK FOR HIGHER GUSTS WITH HREF
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING MEDUIM-HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >45MPH
GUSTS FOR THE BERKSHIRES, SPOTS IN WORCESTER HILLS, AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE MAXES SHOW GUSTS 50- 60 MPH IN THE
BERKSHIRES, WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS AND NEARING 50 MPH
FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WAS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, SO IT MAKES SENSE BEING THE LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THE
PEAK GUSTS OF THIS EVEN THIS AFTER 6 PM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S LATER THIS
EVENING; HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND FACTOR IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
30S AND LOW 40S. BUNDLE UP IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS
(TRICK- OR-TREAT).
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
DETAILS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY; HOWEVER, WEAKER THAN FRI-FRI NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY IN A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CU. CEILINGS WILL TEND
TOWARDS MORE VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BASES SLOWLY
RISE. WSW WIND INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE.
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE W LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY W WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT 25-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. 7-11 FOOT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING BUILD TO 11-16 FEET, HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-250-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236-251.
SYNOPSIS...MENSCH
NEAR TERM...MENSCH
SHORT TERM...MENSCH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO/MENSCH
AVIATION...FRANK/FT
MARINE...MENSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page