872
FXUS61 KBOX 311729
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WEST WINDS PEAK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH ALONG FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
DETAILS...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED TO ~978MB
OVER FAR NORTHERN NH AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAPID PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 MB/2HR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ARE HELPING TO DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 25-35 MPH AROUND THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ADVECTING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOL AIR FOR A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING AS RAPID PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE. A 50-60 KT LLJ
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH CAA THERE SHOULD BE SUPPORT FOR
EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SHOWING A MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
800-850MB WHICH COULD MEAN THAT IF IT DID END UP MIXING CLOSER TO
850MB, 50KT+ GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT SCENARIO. DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER MAY CAP SOME OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY
GRADUALLY MIX OUT TOWARDS THE EVENING. OVERALL, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ON BOARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT LEAST UP TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/PM. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
ACHIEVING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IMMEDIATE COAST, AND CAPE/ISLANDS. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
MEDUIM-HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >45MPH GUSTS FOR THE BERKSHIRES, SPOTS
IN WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE MAXES SHOW GUSTS 50-
60 MPH IN THE BERKSHIRES, WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS AND
NEARING 50 MPH FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS.
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S LATER THIS EVENING;
HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND FACTOR IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 30S AND LOW
40S. BUNDLE UP IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS (TRICK- OR-TREAT).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
* LINGERING CLOUD COVER GIVES WAY TO SUNSHINE.
DETAILS...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY;
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRI-FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW END VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY IN A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CU. CEILINGS WILL TEND
TOWARDS MORE VFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BASES SLOWLY
RISE. WSW WIND INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE.
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE W LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY W WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT 25-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. 7-11 FOOT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING BUILD TO 11-16 FEET, HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ232-250-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236-251.
SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/FT
MARINE...FT
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