016
FXUS61 KBOX 011816
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
216 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DECREASING WIND INTO THIS EVENING, TURNING CHILLY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT BREEZE CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY. A FEW WEAK, QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BREEZY, GUSTS SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
* TURNING CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY AND SEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER. A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE ENTRANCE
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH, WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS BROUGHT ON A COUPLE OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS AND CLOUDS TO THE
MOST WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT'S LARGELY A DRY
DAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THERE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SLACKENS. AREAS WHERE THE GUSTS REMAIN
ARE COASTAL LOCATIONS DUE TO THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE "WARMER" SEA SURFACE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 500MB TEMPS
ARE ROUGHLY -20C! OTHERWISE, LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TONIGHT'S TEMPS FALL
INTO THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S, CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPS ARE A TAD
WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40F.
LASTLY, REMEMBER TO SET YOUR CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR BEFORE HEADING TO
BED AS DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME ENDS AND STANDARD TIME BEGINS. TODAY IS
THE FINAL 5PM SUNSET UNTIL FEBRUARY 3RD (5:01PM). TOMORROW'S SUNSET
RANGES FROM 4:35PM AT BOSTON TO 4:43PM AT HARTFORD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY, LESS BREEZY, AND SEASONABLY COOL.
SUNDAY: QUIET CONDITIONS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE WIND ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS WILL END THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COMING INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH, THE WINDS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION REMAINS OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP PWATS LOW AND RESULT IN A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB WINDS 20-30 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING,
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS AT THE SURFACE TO 20-25 MPH BEFORE NOON, THEN
LESS THAN 20MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS ARE 0C TO +2C
SHOULD HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS AND SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER
EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS. NEAR THE COAST UPPER 30S TO 40F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH
COLD FRONTS LATE MON-TUE & LATE WED-THU.
* GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF GUSTIER
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY, BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO SWEEP
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WITH IT SOME CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OUT THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
REST OF NEXT WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY CALM
WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. FEW BATCHES OF SCT-BKN DECKS 3500-5000 FT DEVELOP TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY DIMINISH BETWEEN 02Z-06Z, EXCEPTIONS ARE THE ISLANDS,
WHERE GUSTS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE, W/WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS, ISOLATED GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH NOON, THOUGH SHOULDN'T BE FREQUENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND FROM THE WSW/SW.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA
LIKELY.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUST CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE MOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING, ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OFF SHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN
UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ROUGH
SEAS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LESS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DURING THE DAY, WNW GUSTS ARE
BELOW 25 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FEET. SUNDAY NIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN
LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...MCMINN
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MCMINN
MARINE...DOOLEY/MCMINN
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