735
FXUS61 KBOX 231806
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
106 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THROUGH MID EVENING
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. BLUSTERY BUT DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR MONDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MILD WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY, THEN WINDY AND COLD WEATHER FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
100 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* OVERCAST WITH A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING
BUT NOTHING WORSE. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
DETAILS:
MIDLEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN NW NY. PRETTY FAVORABLE ASCENT WITH NEW
ENGLAND BEING LOCATED IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
JETSTREAK - THIS JETSTREAK SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AS THE ENHANCED
DRYSLOT SEEN RACING THRU EASTERN PA. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAVE NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH AT ALL AS
DRIER AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT. IT ALSO LOOKS
LIKE SUSTAINED PRECIP WILL BE TOUGHER TO COME BY IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GIVEN THE DRIER PUNCH OF AIR ALOFT AND BETTER (DEEPER)
SATURATION CONFINED TO INTERIOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WOULDN'T RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AT WORST THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WORST OF IT
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE RULE.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH THERE
MAY BE LEFTOVER OCEAN-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
AS WINDS BECOME NWLY WITH SOME MARGINAL OCEAN-ENHANCED INSTABILITY
AS 925-850 MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. EARLY CLOUD COVER AND
THEN NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH INCREASING TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HRS
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING, WITH MID 30S
CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
100 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* BLUSTERY WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY.
* EARLY LOWS MON NIGHT, BUT TEMPS RISE BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.
DETAILS:
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY WEATHER MON, BUT WILL ALSO SEE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. MORE SHALLOW MIXING (MIXING DEPTHS TO AROUND 900 MB
PER BUFKIT PROFILES) SHOULD KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO SUNDOWN. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S, WITH LOW 40S
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS, COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
CITIES.
INITIAL WNW WINDS THEN SLACKEN EARLY MON NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. CONTINUED EASTERLY TRANSLATION OF THE HIGH
TO PERMIT A MODERATELY-STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO DEVELOP FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
AS WELL AS AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR EARLY LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING, THEN RISE
INTO THE 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY. RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, TURNING MILD WITH SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
OVERVIEW: TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. RAIN ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
MILD CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FIRMLY PLACED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE TROUGH BECOMES CUT OFF ACROSS
THE HIGH LATITUDES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND MOVES TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS COMING WEEKEND. PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
THANKSGIVING LEADS TO CAA AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 850MB JET
INCREASES BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
PRECIPITATION: MENTIONED ABOVE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH PWATS INCREASING UP TO AN INCH AND THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASSENT TO SUPPORT THOSE WIDESPREAD SHOWER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN BECOMES
SHOWERY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS
FOR RAINFALL, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AT THIS TIME. THE
PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" OR MORE ARE ROUGHLY 40 TO 60 PERCENT. THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EXITS EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES FALL, UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS. PWATS FALL
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO COME OFF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO PERIODS OF FESTIVE FLURRIES IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES:
A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST, 925MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR
+12C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON! EXPECTING SEASONAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S, WITH UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY FEELS SPRING-LIKE AS HIGHS TOP OFF NEAR 60F
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION ARE IN THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE 50S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL
TO 0C ON THANKSGIVING, AND THEN -5C TO -3C FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COOLER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S. MIND YOU, THERE WILL
BE A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS IF IT WERE
BELOW FREEZING BOTH AFTERNOONS. AS FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ON THE HORIZON, LOWS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-FREEZING LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOWERING CEILINGS BUT SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME; THINKING BASES IN THE BKN/OVC 035-050
RANGE WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT MVFR DECKS AT WORST. LEFT VCSH
IN BETWEEN 20-02Z FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT MAY END UP BRING
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY NOT
ANTICIPATED. SW WINDS 5-10 KT, STARTING TO SHIFT TO W LATE IN
THE WESTERN AIRPORTS.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OVC MAINLY VFR, OUTSIDE CHANCE AT MVFR DECKS WITH FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES THRU 02Z FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. STEADY IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILINGS AFTER 02Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS (SOME LINGERING
OCEAN-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS CAPE AND ISLANDS) AND NW WINDS AROUND
8-12 KT.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WINDS 10-15 KT, GUSTS TO LOW 20S KT RANGE BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, INCREASING COVG OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. WNW/W WINDS
5-10 KT EARLY CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT THEN SHIFT TO SW AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT AFTER 06Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAINLY VFR;
SPINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z MON TO 02/03Z MON BUT
LITTLE/NO IMPACT. WINDSHIFT TO NW AROUND 10-12 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
THANKSGIVING DAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW TO W WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY EARLY TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITY.
ADDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AS NW WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. SEAS INCREASE INTO THE 3-6
FT RANGE, HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MON. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY MON NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT BY TUE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THANKSGIVING DAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/LOCONTO
MARINE...KJC/LOCONTO
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