427
FXUS61 KBOX 250035
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MILD
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH RISK OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT, BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH-PRESSURE CRESTS JUST SOUTH OF SNE TONIGHT, ALLOWING BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN
STREAMING IN LATE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ONCE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW:
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN SSW AT 10-15MPH, GUSTING
20-25, ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO MONDAY, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
ROBUST LAYER OF DRY AIR AROUND 900MB. THIS PROCESS COULD TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS AND SO RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHIELD OF STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVES AROUND 00Z AND OVERSPREADS
THE REGION FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NBM SHOWING BETWEEN 0.30-0.50" THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND CLOUD
HEIGHTS FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. LOWS WILL SETTLED IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT IN THE
INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MILD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
* BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
* WINDY AND COLD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* BECOMING UNSETTLED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING WITH SNE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS IT'S A
PRETTY MILD AIRMASS WITH 925 MB TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 10C BY 12Z WED
AND 10-12C DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED SUNSHINE AND SHALLOW MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING EXCEEDINGLY MILD BUT TEMPS WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE REGION WED BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS INTO WED
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH UPPER JET,
ALTHOUGH NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WED
NIGHT 03-06Z FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS
IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPS WILL FALL FROM THE 50S WED EVENING
INTO THE 30S BY THU MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLD PATTERN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE THROUGH. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ON FRI IN THE INTERIOR AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. MOST SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. REGARDING TEMPS, ONLY A SMALL TEMP RECOVERY ON THU IN THE
COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW-MID 40S, COOLING FURTHER TO
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FRI WHICH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST ARE EXPECTED
AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT WITH DEEP MIXING ALLOWING A LOT OF
THIS WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 30-40
MPH GUSTS FRI. LESS WIND SAT BUT STILL BREEZY AND COLDEST DAY
EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE CHILLY TEMPS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER DURING THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE PATTERN
BECOMES UNSETTLED WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP SOMETIME SUN INTO MON
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING AND ANY
PRECIP LIKELY TO BE RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, INCREASING COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE, THEN BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT LATE.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, THOUGH CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND COULD TREND TO OVC
MVFR WESTERN AIRPORTS LATE AS RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH. SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE DAY AS SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 30-35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR IN ALL AREAS WITH PERIODS OF
4-6 SM RAINS AND FOG. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MOST
AREAS LIKELY TO BE SUB-VFR BY 05Z. SW TO S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
THANKSGIVING DAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SUB-CRITERIA CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS ALL WATERS.
A EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF FUNDY MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RESIDUAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, UNTIL THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TODAY FOR GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET. WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THANKSGIVING DAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 15 FT.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KP/FT
NEAR TERM...BELK/KP
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO/FT
MARINE...DOOLEY/FT
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