525
FXUS61 KBOX 111939
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
239 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS WINDS TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES. SNOW
IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CHILLY AND BREEZY
ON MONDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. FEW FAST MOVING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
* STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS
WIDESPREAD 35-50 MPH GUSTS
* WIND CHILLS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY EVEN
THE NEGATIVES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ALREADY SEEING 35 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, ALSO EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY... WELL INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST OF SNE, LOW 20S FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WIND CHILL
READINGS TONIGHT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS SNE, WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS POSSIBLY EVEN SEEING
SOME NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE HIGH. EXPECTING A SUNNY AND DRY DAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF SNE. WIND CHILLS
TOMORROW MORNING START OUT IN THE SINGLY DIGITS THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE LOW 20S. EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET... EXPECTING CAPE
AND ISLANDS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 20S WITH THE REST OF SNE IN
THE MID TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
* CHILLY AND BREEZY ON MONDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. FEW FAST MOVING AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: HIGH-PRESSURE POSITIONED SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR A QUIET AND DRY SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW USHERS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-30S, WITH THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST, CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS REACHING THE LOW-40S. AREA OF HIGH-
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFF THE COAST AS A ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING MINOR
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WOULD BE THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD AND MEASURABLE SNOW (MORE THAN 0.1") FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN. NOW, BEFORE EVERYONE BECOMES TOO EXCITED THIS SYSTEM
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW MAKER. QUESTIONS THAT STILL
NEED TO BE IRONED OUT ARE HOW QUICKLY DOES THE LOW DEVELOP AND
HOW CLOSER/FAR OUT TO SEA DOES IT TRACK. 12Z SET OF GUIDANCE
TODAY SHOWS TWO CAMPS; ONE IS A NEAR SHORE SOLUTION WITH
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
THE GREATEST TOTALS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. AND A SECOND SOLUTION,
A PASS OUT TO SEA WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL CHANCES SUPPRESSED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. MODELS IN CAMP ONE ARE THE
CANADIAN AND NAM12KM AND IN CAMP TWO ARE GFS/ECMWF & AIFS/UKMET.
WHEN VIEWING THE NBM 5.0 PROBABILITIES, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN ARBITRARY LINE FROM HARTFORD, TO PROVIDENCE, TO PLYMOUTH
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF 1.0" OR GREATER OF SNOW, AT 50-70%, WITH
A 10-30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 2.0". AS THIS IS A COASTAL SYSTEM,
AREAS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE, HAVE LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF
1.0". THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS, THOUGH
AS THIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SHOULD
BE LOWER VERSUS DURING THE WEEKDAY MORNING RUSH. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR RUSHES IN WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AT THE
COAST AND MID- 20S INLAND. FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT 20-30 MPH
ALLOW IT TO FEEL +/- 5F.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK: LOW-PRESSURE MOVES INTO CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RETURNS FOR MONDAY. CHILLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW-30S. NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES, ALBEIT WEAK,
RIDE THE ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WARM STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S, BUT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOSE COULD REACH WELL INTO THE
40S.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG CAA BRINGS WESTERLY GALES FOR ALL THE WATERS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR STORM FORCE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GALES GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO
3 NM.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SNOW LIKELY, CHANCE OF RAIN. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SUNDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...MCMINN
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page