990
FXUS61 KBOX 141855
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
155 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN
0 TO 10 BELOW. COLD WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 50+ ARE
POSSIBLE. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
A BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS INTO THIS EVENING, CONFINED MOSTLY TO
SOUTHEAST MA THIS AFTERNOON.
* TURNING COLDER TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 TO 10 BELOW. A FEW
LOCATIONS TOWARDS NW MA COULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
20 BELOW.
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAD LARGELY ENDED ACROSS MOST OF RI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA. AS SUCH, CANCELED A PORTION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY. WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS CANCEL MORE OF THE
REMAINING ADVISORY TOWARDS 4 PM. OTHERWISE, IT WILL STILL EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING.
AS OF THIS WRITING, THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN
THE VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. THE
OUTER CAPE IS WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
STILL EXPECTING SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THEY
ARE FOR NOW. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME OF THESE
ADVISORIES PRIOR TO THE 7 PM EXPIRATION TIME.
ONCE THE SNOWFALL ENDS, JUST TURNING COLDER WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND GUSTS WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES, BUT THINKING THE COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* GUSTY WNW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
* DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA WILL MAINTAIN DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR A STRAY SNOW SHOWER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAKE IT INTO THE
BERKSHIRES MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY & CHILLY TUE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
* TURNING MILDER WED WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER & HIGHS INTO THE
40S
* SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN & POTENTIAL BRIEFLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS
* BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
FRI INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...
STILL CHILLY TUE, BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO MAINLY THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING -PNA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING
FURTHER EAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY ON WED, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS HAPPENS, STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PERHAPS SUB 980 MB WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY.
NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING UP UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SOMETIME LATER THU INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS IF THE INVERSION IS ABLE
TO MIX OUT. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THAT...BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 50S THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI AND MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH 60 DEGREES. IF WE ARE
ABLE TO GET MILD ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS TO BE REALIZED WILL INCREASE. AGAIN...WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY
MUCH MORE THAN THAT BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
BRIEFLY TURNING MUCH COLDER LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS THIS TIME FROM THE WEST IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
MVFR-IFR AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WNW
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE COAST DEVELOP.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
MAINLY VFR WITH NW GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. A FEW FAIR-WEATHER
CLOUDS EARLY, BUT SHOULD BE VFR. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CIGS. LIGHTER W WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE 21Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. RA LIKELY.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. RA LIKELY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALES THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
35-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
VERY LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AREAS
OF GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN LIKELY.
FRIDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 12 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ020>024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/MENSCH
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