505
FXUS61 KBOX 260755
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
255 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NORTH AND EAST AS
CONFIDENCE FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW INCREASES. CONFIDENCE IN 6+
INCHES OUTSIDE OF SW CT REMAINS LOW. GAINING CONFIDENCE IN THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS WESTERN MA, THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CT, AND INTO
SOUTHERN RI. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN SW CT,
WHERE 6-9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- STORM SYSTEM AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING WINTRY MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) TO RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO WESTERN NY. GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS SE NY
INTO SW CT, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS REACHING INTO NW MA AND SOUTHERN RI.
THE HREF PMM DISPLAYS A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH A SWATH OF 6-9
INCHES IN SW CT WITH 3-6 INCHES IN A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES ALL THE WAY TO BLOCK ISLAND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. THERE WAS
CONSIDERATION OF EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO HARTFORD AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES, AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE 700 MB FGEN AND
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND PIVOTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS STILL TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES OF SNOW
REACHING WELL INTO HARTFORD COUNTY. THE OTHER AREA OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS SE MASS, WHERE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT MAY BOOST
SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BETWEEN 7
AND 10 PM, EXCEPT IN NE MA, WHERE SNOW WONT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW EXITS THE REGION BETWEEN 2-5 AM WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL 7 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL BE FROM
8 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR, BUT COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND.
TODAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING CALM BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS TO FALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STORM SYSTEM AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING WINTRY MIX (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) TO
RAIN.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH A STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE STILL APPEARS TO BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST, FAVORING A MORE WET-THAN-WHITE FORECAST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ON THE
ORDER OF +4-6C. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THIS WARM LAYER. SUCH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHAT THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF
FREEZING AIR WILL BE BY THE TIME THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SATURATES ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME, FAVORING FREEZING RAIN OVER SLEET, BUT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF THAT AS WELL AT THE ONSET. THE DURATION OF
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE FULLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS ALSO A SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY. PROBABILITIES FAVOR LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF FLAT ICE
ACCUMULATION. STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND
THAT STATEMENT. THE AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN MA AND ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
REST OF TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. POCKETS OF LOW-END SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. NW-NWW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, EASING GUSTS FALL BETWEEN
20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS EARLY, EASING LATE MORNING
WITH A SHIFT TO THE ENE. WINDS SPEEDS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR EARLY, BUT FALLING TO MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN. AREAS WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE WESTERN
MA AND CENTRAL/WESTERN CT. SNOW MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z. LIGHT E/NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. WINDS NNW GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. DECREASING NORTH WINDS. SNOW ARRIVES AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-05Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA, CHANCE
FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA, FZRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY
DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY DOWN TO 2-5 FEET. WINDS TURN NE AROUND 20
KNOTS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. RAIN, CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 15 FT. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR RIZ003-006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
233>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP
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