336
FXUS61 KBOX 262329
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
629 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NORTH AND EAST AS
CONFIDENCE FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW INCREASES. CONFIDENCE IN 6+
INCHES OUTSIDE OF SW CT REMAINS LOW. GAINING CONFIDENCE IN THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6-8" FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN MA AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL CT. HIGHEST TOTALS
REMAIN OVER SW CT AND INTO SE NY.
- STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING ICE SUNDAY NIGHT
TO RAIN MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
6-8" FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MA AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL CT. HIGHEST
TOTALS REMAIN OVER SW CT AND INTO SE NY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT DRY SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST NBM 5.0 TOTALS TRENDED UP ALONG
WITH THE LATEST HREF AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, NOTABLY FOR OUR
AREA OVER CENTRAL CT AND INTO PARTS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN SW CT AND SE NY. THE HEAVIEST BAND AND THE ASSOCIATED 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THOSE AREAS AND
PROGRESS EAST, WEAKENING APPROACHING EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1" PER HOUR AND UP TO 2-3" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGEST BANDS. CONSIDERING THE LATEST TRENDS, WE OPTED TO UPGRADE
HARTFORD COUNTY AND WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING, AS THOSE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES AT THIS TIME
THAT COULD SEE THE ELEVATED TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS BAND SETS UP SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH
OR SOUTH OF WHAT IS FORECAST, SNOW TOTALS COULD NOTICEABLY
CHANGE.
WE ALSO OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST, WHICH WAS
MAINLY FUELED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE IN SOME OCEAN EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN MA AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
THAT COULD INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO BETWEEN 3-6". SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND THIS ENHANCEMENT
COULD INCREASE TOTALS, THOUGH. ON THE LOWER END, SOUTHERN AND SE
MA CAN EXPECT TOTALS IN THE 2-4" RANGE. SOUTHERN RI INTO
EASTERN CT AND CENTRAL MA CAN EXPECT TOTALS BETWEEN 3-6".
REGARDING TIMING, THIS REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SNOW WILL MOVE IN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 7-9 PM, EXCEPT IN NE MA WHERE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BANDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CT, DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CT AND SOUTHERN RI. HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE +2" AN HOUR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
CT. SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION BETWEEN 4-7 AM WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE EAST
COAST. OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT COULD KEEP THEM THERE SLIGHTLY
LONGER AS SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH.
POST-STORM, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING ICE
SUNDAY NIGHT TO RAIN MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE
SHOULD THEN BE A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN FOR MONDAY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS ON THE DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN, WHICH WILL THEN LEAD
DIRECTLY TO TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
IN PARTICULAR, THE 26/12Z NAM HAS GONE WAY WARM WITH THE WARM NOSE,
PEAKING AT +6-9C WITH ABOUT A RATHER DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER BENEATH
IT. THINKING THIS COLD LAYER IS TOO SHALLOW FOR SLEET, BUT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR FREEZING RAIN. MUCH WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW WARM THE
GROUND GETS SUNDAY. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO FAVOR LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH OF FLAT ICE
ACCUMULATION. ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA, THERE IS POSSIBILITY
FOR A LITTLE MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAY. TIMING-WISE, THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT, BUT WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT ENDS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR FALLING TO MVFR/IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN TO SN. AREAS WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE WESTERN MA
AND CENTRAL/WESTERN CT. SNOW MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT E/NE WINDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR EASTERN MA INTO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE TURNING VFR WITH NNE WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR. LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
CIGS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR,
BUT WITH SNOW AND LIGHT NNE WINDS, CIGS COULD EASILY GO IFR.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MVFR TONIGHT. SNOW MOVES IN BY 00Z TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 01-04Z. STEADY LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH ABOUT 09-12Z BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. MVFR CIGS TONIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA, CHANCE
FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA, FZRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT & SATURDAY
WINDS TURN NE AROUND 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS
MODERATE SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS BETWEEN 2-5
FT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 17 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 12 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ003-
004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008-010>012-016>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
DISCUSSION...BELK/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/HRENCECIN
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