710
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
106 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTH SHORE, BOSTON,
AND WESTERN RI FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM AND ENDING BY 4
AM. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CT
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY MORNING AND PEAK
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
- CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM
AND ENDING BY 4 AM. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO STRETCH ALL
THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE STUBBORN TO RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FROM THE WARM FRONT WONT ARRIVE UNTIL
CLOSER TO 7-10 PM, MOVING FROM SW TO NE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A DEEP WARM LAYER ALOFT, PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY FALL
AS FREEZING RAIN. THE 00Z HREF SHOWED VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
12Z RUN, SHOWING THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY. FLAT ICE ACCRETION
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN CT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE ICE TOTALS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH. FURTHER SOUTH IN SE MA AND
SOUTHERN RI, TEMPERATURES MAY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN AT ONSET. REMINDER: ANY AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
HAZARDOUS, MAKING UNTREATED SURFACES SLIPPERY. ANY ICE ACCRETION ON
TREES AND POWER LINES ALREADY HOLDING ONTO LEFTOVER SNOW COULD LEAD
TO POWER OUTAGES.
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 11 PM
AND 4 AM AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. DRY SLOT
BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRYING BEFORE MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, THE HIGH WILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S IN SE MA AND THE LOW 40S IN NW MA.
BETWEEN THE RAIN AND WARM TEMPS, THE SNOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY
WONT LAST LONG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO START TUESDAY MORNING
AND PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE 20S. HIGH WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS DURING THE DAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A STREAMER/SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN MA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ACCOMPANIED
BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 FRIDAY.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW FALL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE 20S. HIGH WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS DURING THE DAY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A STREAMER/SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN MA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ACCOMPANIED
BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 FRIDAY.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW FALL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR; LOWERING MID/HIGH-LEVEL VFR CLOUDINESS 20-00Z. WINDS BECOME
SW UNDER 10 KT.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT MODERATE ON
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM FZRA TO RA.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BETWEEN 01-03Z MON AS WITH 3-6 SM -FZRA,
MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ICY UNTREATED
RUNWAYS ARE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD, WHERE RA
SHOULD PREDOMINATE. GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM FZRA TO RA TAKES
PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 06-10Z MON; HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
IFR CEILINGS/VISBYS DEVELOP AS SITES CHANGEOVER TO RA/BR. IFR TO
LIFR CONTINUES IN RA/BR REST OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH STRONG
CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH IF ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 22-00Z TUE.
SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AFTER 05Z AS SW LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 45 KT.
WINDS MON BECOME S AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 22Z, WHICH BRINGS A WINDSHIFT TO WSW/W.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, THOUGH BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN/AROUND HIGH TERRAIN.
WNW WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS
35-50 KT, HIGHEST GUSTS IN HIGH TERRAIN.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
FZRA DEVELOPS W/MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AROUND 03Z MON. CHANGEOVER TO
RA AROUND 07Z WITH MIST AS WINDS TURN LIGHT SE, TO GO ALONG
WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO IFR WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THESE
CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY STEADY, UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE DAY BRINGS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH 02Z MONDAY.
FZRA DEVELOPS W/MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AROUND 02Z MON. CHANGEOVER TO
RA WITH MIST AROUND 07Z, TO GO ALONG WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO
IFR WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY
STEADY, UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 20-22Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
NEW YEARS DAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY:
N-NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS YIELDING SCA
SEAS UP TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, YIELDING TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS BY LATE DEC STANDARDS. POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE (SUB 980
MB) ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON, YIELDING SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 16 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 16 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS
OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
NEW YEARS DAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
250-251-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-
256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/KP
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MCMINN/KP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page