244
FXUS61 KBOX 291119
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
619 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BUT STILL SOME LOCALIZED ICY SPOTS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS INTO MID-MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BUT STILL SOME LOCALIZED ICY SPOTS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
LOW-LYING LOCATIONS INTO MID-MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MA.
- VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT STILL SOME LOCALIZED ICY SPOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOW- LYING LOCATIONS INTO MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
RISE.
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LEADING TO THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THIS MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS HAS MOVED IN, AND WE'RE EXPECTING A SECONDARY ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TO SEE THE LOWER
50S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MA.
CONFIDENCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH ONTARIO.
EXPECTING THIS TO BE AN EFFICIENT MIXER, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 850 MB... THE NAMNST IS EVEN
HINTING AT MIXING UP TO 825 MB OVER THE WORCESTER HILLS AND 800MB
NEAR THE BERKSHIRES. GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON 850 MB WINDS GUSTING
45-60 KTS OVER THE REGION, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND CAPE/ISLANDS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS >45 MPH OVER
THESE AREAS HAS INCREASED TO THE 75-85% RANGE, AND AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, FELT CONFIDENT IN ISSUING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA. EXPECTING GUSTS TO START INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE PEAK GUSTS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST FROM MID-WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AM.
A DEEP ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON/S BAY & QUEBEC FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. A PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE
IS MOISTURE STARVED...THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL JUST BE A DUSTING TO LESS
THAN 1 INCH. SOMETIMES THESE MOISTURE STARVED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT/S END UP RINGING OUT A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN EXPECTED.
THE NBM DOES SHOW SOME LOW PROBS OF 1- 2" OF SNOW WHICH WOULD BE
A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. BUT
AGAIN...THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT AND ITS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS DO NOT EVEN SEE FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT STORM THREAT SO DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF
THE TIME. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 30S AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FOG
TODAY. LLWS TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. S WINDS BECOME SW AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT VERY BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATO-CU WITH PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MA.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
CHANCE SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
- STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT
STRONG GALE FORCE W WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE STRONG
CAA PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
NEW YEARS DAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231-250-251-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/FRANK
AVIATION...MCMINN/FRANK
MARINE...MCMINN/FRANK
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