369
FXUS61 KBOX 300524
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1224 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES. THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY. BOTH HEADLINES START AT 7 PM TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES, MAINLY NEW YEARS EVE
NIGHT, BUT ALL IN ALL, A COLD AND DRY LATE WEEK TO THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
- VESSEL ICING DUE TO ACCRETION OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE
WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
230 PM UPDATE
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AND GUSTY WINDS PICK UP WITH DEEP MIXING AND
STRONG LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND MID
MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DROP OFF AS THE DAY GOES ON. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW OVER WESTERN MA AS SOME OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL TO OUR WEST MOVES ACROSS NY. NOTHING MORE THAN
A COATING AT MOST IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO MIX UP TO 850 MB ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH WINDS AT THAT POINT FOR MOST AROUND 55
KT. SOME SOUNDINGS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES, MIX UP TO 825 MB AND TAP IN TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE. LAPSE RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT START
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 C/KM UP TO 10 C/KM BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE WINDS SEEMING MORE BORDERLINE BETWEEN WIND
ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN,
WHICH WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND
INTENSIFY WINDS AS A RESULT. SO, WITH THIS IN CONSIDERATION ALONG
WITH DOWNSLOPING, WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. THE REST OF THE REGION WAS FLIPPED TO A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RISK OF GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES, MAINLY
NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT, BUT ALL IN ALL, A COLD AND DRY LATE WEEK TO
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
TODAY (MONDAY) WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
BECAUSE WHILE NOT RECORD-SETTING COLD, WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW YEAR. 500 MB PATTERN
ACROSS CONUS BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED AND RESEMBLES A POSITIVE
PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM LOWER-
THAN-NORMAL HEIGHTS/TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST. IT'S A PATTERN WHICH LOADS THE DICE TOWARD
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD, MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR IN THE NW FLOW UNTIL
THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN, WITH WEAK-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SYSTEMS BEING
FAVORED, NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN THE SNOW DEPARTMENT.
OUR 850 MB TEMPS STAY AT OR COLDER THAN -15C STARTING TUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE 20S TO VALUES NEAR
FREEZING MARK FOR THE SOUTH COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES, THE COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT
TO EARLY NEW YEARS DAY COULD BRING SOME DECORATIVE PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS BUT SIGNIFICANT/NOTABLE ACCUMULATION ISN'T LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VESSEL ICING DUE TO ACCRETION OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY FOR MARINE INTERESTS...BUT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY MILDER OCEAN WATERS, PERIODS OF FREEZING
SPRAY COULD ACCRETE ON VESSEL MASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANTICIPATED FREEZING SPRAY ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY
WOULD REACH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY ICING RANGE WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS, AND DAYS WHICH
HAVE LOWER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WOULD HAVE A LESSER RISK.
HOWEVER WE DID WANT TO GIVE IT AT LEAST A MENTION, SINCE THE RISK
FOR LIGHT VESSEL ICING DUE TO FREEZING SPRAY COULD EXIST FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD GIVEN THE SPELL OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
UPCOMING.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KTS
THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTING UP TO 50 KTS AT ORH.
WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH CLOSER TO 35 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SN.
NEW YEARS DAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
- STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND
IT, GALE-FORCE W WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AMIDST STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVE IN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS ANOTHER CONCERN TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THOUGH
THIS RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE
OF RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
NEW YEARS DAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE
OF FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ003-005>007-
010>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002-004-008-
009-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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