186
FXUS61 KBOX 011726
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1226 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELED ACROSS FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
COUNTIES, WHICH ARE NOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT. EXPECTING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY AS THIS ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES BY. GALE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW HAS COME TO AN END IN SNE.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS IS POSSIBLE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS TO INDICATE
THE EXIT OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW OFF OF CAPE COD, BRINGING
AN END TO ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FELL ACROSS CT, RI, AND MUCH OF
MA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE. HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10C AND -15C WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STABLE, IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY
TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE, IN THE MID TEENS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEKEND, THEN DROPPING TO SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING,
PLACEMENT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS HIGH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO NARROW IN ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.
GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND A
MORE DIFFUSE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN JET. THINKING THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY A WEAK LOW, AND THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM BRINGING
THE SNOW IMPACTS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS
IS LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS WILL GIVE
RISE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING A CONCERN FOR
MARINERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEREFORE A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE ANN,
BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND, AND NANTUCKET SOUND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
* NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR SOME WATERS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS WEST BY MID MORNING. AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING PAST THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MOST WATERS. EASING WIND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THREAT FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR WATERS NORTH OF CAPE ANN
TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER, AS WELL AS BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND,
AND NANTUCKET SOUND BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ022.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234-250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page