392
FXUS61 KBOX 011902
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
202 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALL BEEN CANCELLED AS STORM HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR SUNDAY'S SNOW POTENTIAL. STILL LOOKING AT A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS IS
LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AS TODAY'S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST, WE'LL SEE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGHING REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD, DRY
NW FLOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EVER CLOSER
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR A COLD AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF NOTE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SNE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS OVER LAND;
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WATERS. THIS INCREASES CONCERN FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO CAUSE
ISSUES AS GUSTY COLD WINDS BLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER.
GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD (925 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -15C) HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE, IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE WIND TRAJECTORY TO BRIEFLY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NANTUCKET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/ SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS STILL
SHOWS A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENS SHOWING
VERY LOW (<10% CHANCE) FOR 0.1" OF QPF OR GREATER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBS EXIST FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20-30%.
ADMITTEDLY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT AND
SCATTERED SNOWFALL FROM THIS SETUP AS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A WEAK BUT MOISTURE
LADEN DISTURBANCE WELL OFFSHORE. THUS, THE AREAL EXTENT AND
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF ANY SNOWFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE
WATERS IS LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS WILL GIVE RISE
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING SPRAY BECOMING A CONCERN FOR MARINERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEREFORE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE ANN, BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND,
AND NANTUCKET SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
* NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR SOME WATERS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST
WATERS. EASING WIND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THREAT FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR WATERS NORTH OF CAPE ANN
TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER, AS WELL AS BUZZARDS BAY, VINEYARD SOUND,
AND NANTUCKET SOUND BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. SEAS 3-6 FT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251-256.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234-250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
DISCUSSION...BW/FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW/FT
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