506
FXUS61 KBOX 151121
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
621 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONT TODAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH PERHAPS A
FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS REDUCED THE
THREAT FOR DAYTIME SNOW SQUALLS BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR EVEN GRAUPEL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2"
OF SNOW POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH A FEW RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TURNING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
- A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE SNOW LIKELY NORTHWEST OF I-95.
- COASTAL STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT IF IT TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
- SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS LATER MON INTO WED WITH BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS AND HIGHS TEMPS HELD BETWEEN 15 AND 25 TUE
INTO WED. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WITH MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY/GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS OUR WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH A FEW RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TURNING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50...BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WINDY WEATHER
WORKING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 850MB INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE TO 7.5-9 C/KM. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A GUSTY DAY WITH
WIND GUSTS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PEAKING AROUND 30-40 MPH. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE CHANGE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING FROM +1C THIS MORNING TO -14C TONIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20F COLDER THAN THE NIGHT PREVIOUS, IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID WIND
CHILL VALUES, IN THE -5 TO +10F RANGE FOR MOST LOCATION. IT
WILL BE A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR, THOUGH, WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS RIGHT BEHIND IT.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY...BUT A FEW BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS/ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAY EVEN SEE SOME
GRAUPEL WITH INSTABILITY AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT. STRONG/COLD
WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL. OVERALL THOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
SNOW LIKELY NORTHWEST OF I-95.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST AND FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. IN RESPONSE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.
IN RESPONSE...A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND
OVER RUN THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PARTICULARLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING
AT TIMES ON SAT. A COATING TO 2" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF I-95 WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN BY SAT AFTERNOON. SO WHILE SNOW MAY STILL BE IN THE AIR SAT AFTERNOON...MOST
TREATED ROADWAYS WILL JUST BE WET BY THAT TIME.
THE DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND EVEN SOUTHEAST OF I-95. REGARDLESS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO EASTERN MA/RI WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S SAT AFTERNOON. SO REALLY NO CONCERNS IN THIS REGION AND ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT REACHES INTO THIS REGION WOULD CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COASTAL STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT IF IT TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK/INTENSITY AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
SEVERAL PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG WITH THEIR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT PHASING CAN OCCUR WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED RESULTING IN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. LACK OF PHASING WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER EAST WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT. GIVEN THIS IS STILL A
DAY 4 FORECAST...ALL OPTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE. THE 00Z GFS/CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POTENTIALLY BRINGING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET HAVE A TRACK FURTHER EAST WITH MORE OF A LIGHT GLANCING BLOW
TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE ALSO REMAINS QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OF EACH MODEL...SHOWING THAT WE NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE AT THIS POINT. WE DID
WANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE EPS AI ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT THAN THE REGULAR EPS ENSEMBLES. CERTAINLY COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT THE EC MAY CORRECT
FURTHER WEST...BUT AGAIN TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN ANY POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS LATER MON INTO WED WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND HIGHS TEMPS HELD BETWEEN 15 AND 25 TUE INTO WED. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WITH
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY/GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS OUR WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION IN THE LATER MON TO WED TIME FRAME. 850T
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE -20C TO -24C FOR A TIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 0 TO 10 DEGREE
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WITH MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS OUR WATERS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.
A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
MA. THERE ALSO WERE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS A RESULT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER/ELEVATION SNOW SHOWER.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR OUTSIDE A BRIEF SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER. W WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SN.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO
30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO PICK BACK UP AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE W WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS. STRONG CAA WILL RESULT
IN W 35-40 KNOT WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL BUILD TO
BETWEEN 6 AND 11 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...FT/FRANK
AVIATION...FT/FRANK
MARINE...FT/FRANK
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