294
FXUS61 KBOX 160508
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1208 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH HOW CLOSE A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING BLUSTERY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
- 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NORTH
AND WEST OF I-95
- COASTAL SYSTEM REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, A CLOSER
TRACK WOULD FAVOR PLOWABLE SNOW AMOUNTS TO A PORTION OF THE
REGION.
- SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY/GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BECOMING BLUSTERY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SNE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT AT -15 TO -17C LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON WILL PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH LOWS REACHING THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BY FRI MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH THE WIND PEAKING LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS FRI MORNING, EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE
BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS.
UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT AND
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY IMPACT. THE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RAPIDLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION SO EXPECT
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES
OUT FRIDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 30S, EXCEPT MID-
UPPER 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE TOWARDS NEW ENG. ONE
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SHOT OF OVERRUNNING
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A COATING TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-95. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-95 TEMPS WILL BE WARMING INTO UPPER 30S WITH LOWER
40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. SO ANY LIGHT SNOW EARLY WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP BY LATE SAT MORNING, THEN
A SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MID LEVEL FRONT MOVING
INTO NEW ENG WITH AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW AND RAIN. THE SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AS A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. ADDITIONAL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR 2 IS
POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR SAT AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION
FROM LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT OF 1-3 INCHES, MUCH OF THIS
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/W MA AND NORTHERN CT. IT IS POSSIBLE RAIN
FLIPS TO SNOW NEAR I-95 BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN A SLUSHY COATING HERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COASTAL SYSTEM REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, A CLOSER
TRACK WOULD FAVOR PLOWABLE SNOW AMOUNTS TO A PORTION OF THE REGION.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BRUSH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BRINGING THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS REGARDING A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH A FEW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS A PIECE OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ALSO TRACKS UP THE COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. IN THE SCENARIO OF BETTER PHASING, THIS WOULD RESULT
IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SUPPORTING A LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LESS
PHASING, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL (< 2")
ACCUMULATIONS AND LIKELY CONFINED FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
DUE TO THESE PHASING UNCERTAINTIES, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE IN LOW TRACKS AND SNOW TOTALS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN SHIFTS. THIS INDICATES THAT
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT, AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
LOCK IN ON A SINGLE SCENARIO. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LEANED TOWARD
AN OFFSHORE TRACK RESULTING IN A RANGE FROM A TRACE OF SNOW
FURTHER WEST TO AN INCH OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST MA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE CANADIAN, AIGFS, AND AI-ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
HIGHER QPF. BOTTOM LINE, WE ARE NOT LOCKING IN ON A SPECIFIC
OUTCOME YET, LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A CLOSER
TRACK WHICH MAY YIELD A 2"+ ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT (HIGHER
PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHEAST MA).
KEY MESSAGE 4...SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY/GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH A DEEP TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND IT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE -20
TO -24C RANGE WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS RANGE 15-25
DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS BRINGING WIND CHILL VALUES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, CLOSE TO ZERO FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SPOTS DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS. CHILLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W GUSTS TO 25-35 KT TODAY, DIMINISHING LATE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR, BUT LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR LATE FRI NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR AS
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING. GUSTY SW
WINDS SHIFT TO W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 35-40
KT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS. THE COLD AIR
AND INCREASING WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRI AND EVENTUALLY
DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER FRI NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF SNOW.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...KJC/MENSCH
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