278
FXUS61 KBOX 162013
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
313 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MA WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF SNE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE COD, BUT THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA AND NW CT, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE BERKSHIRES.
- OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING PLOWABLE SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK AND
WESTWARD EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO A LARGER RANGE
IN POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FELT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND
FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA AND NW CT, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE BERKSHIRES.
INTERESTING SET UP LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT
WITH A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SAT
AFTERNOON. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WITH A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE RESULTING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY INTERIOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. WE ALSO BRIEFLY HAVE
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MAINLY NW OF HFD-ORH-FIT. THE AXIS OF
STEADIEST SNOW MAY SHIFT EVEN FURTHER NW AFTER 12Z TO WESTERN MA,
THEN AS THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND STRONGEST LIFT MOVES EAST THE
AXIS OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL MA AND PORTIONS
OF CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER
ISSUES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA, RI
AND EASTERN CT WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S. SO LOOKING AT
MOSTLY RAIN HERE AS THE AXIS OF PRECIP MOVES EAST. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
FLIP TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING NEAR AND NW OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE
AFTERNOON BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-
95.
THERE IS A PERIOD OF DECENT LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION DURING
SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH 1"/HR BEFORE THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW OF BDL-ORH-FIT
WHERE 1-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED, THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND IN THE
BERKSHIRES WHERE LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MA, RI INTO EASTERN CT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM WESTERN MA INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
THE SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
BERKSHIRES TO WORCESTER HILLS. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED IN LOW
ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON
ROADS.
PRECIP ENDS IN EASTERN NEW ENG BY EARLY SAT EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING PLOWABLE SNOW
TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK AND
WESTWARD EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO A LARGER RANGE IN
POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SHIELD OF PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM/LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE VICINITY OF
THE BENCHMARK. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AMONG
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH SOLUTIONS SHIFTING
FROM RUN TO RUN STILL. THE NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE BROUGHT SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONTINUED
MODEL TO MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER, IT CAN BE SAID THAT MOST
GUIDANCE NOW HAS HAD MORE CONSISTENCY WITH AT LEAST A SIGNAL FOR
ANY QPF IN A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, EVEN AT THE
25TH PERCENTILES OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS ONE OF THE
NOTABLE OUTLIERS WITH A WELL OFFSHORE TRACK AND A COMPLETE MISS.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE AI GFS/ECMWF HAVE STAY CONSISTENT WITH FURTHER
WEST TRACKS RESULTING IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PLOWABLE SNOW
EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR AND NORTH IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS OPPOSED TO OTHER GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CONTINUED TRACK
SHIFTS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE THE WEST/NORTH
EXTENT OF THE 2"+ SNOWFALL. ALL A SIGN THAT ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TO BE CONSIDERED AND EACH RUN TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
BEST WAY FORWARD IS TO NOT LOCK INTO ANY RUN OR MODEL DESPITE IT
BEING A FEW DAYS OUT. WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVERALL. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING
2"+ OF SNOW ARE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR, FOLLOWED LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR REST OF RI, NORTHEAST CT,
PUSHING BACK TOWARD WORCESTER AND LOWER AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. IT
IS STILL WORTH CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER WEST
EXTENT OF PLOWABLE TOTALS AT THIS TIME. ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE, THE
PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ ARE LOW TO NONE WHICH AT LEAST LEANS
TOTALS MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE FAVORED
AREAS.
EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR SNOW TO BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DETAILS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET EVEN CLOSER WHICH WILL HELP NUDGE
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL WINTER ADVISORIES/HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FELT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS CONTINUED STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20 TO -23C BY
TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL, EVEN FOR JANUARY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RANGING
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES. TO PUT IT INTO PERSPECTIVE, THAT'S ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR. TO
ADD ON, WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO BE BREEZY TO GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WINDS 30-40 KTS ALOFT, TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT MIXING OF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. NO SIGNAL FOR STRONG GUSTS AT THIS TIME, BUT COULD
SEE GUSTS 20-35 MPH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY MORNING AND SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WHICH ALSO RISES THE RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY, POTENTIALLY
MODERATE IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES LIFTS NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES.
THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS. GUST DIMINISH BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z IN SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TOO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ON SAT.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1-3" OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN CT WITH PERHAPS SOME 3-6"
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD
RESULT IN WET RUNWAYS BY SAT AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE BERKS AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RI JUST A FEW BRIEF RAIN/WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, LINGERING MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT W WIND 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR THROUGH 08Z-10Z, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CEILINGS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF -SHSN, BETTER CONFIDENCE IN A
PERIOD OF -SN AFTER 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 22Z.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY: BREEZY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY S-SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTS TO 25+ KT, THEN
DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS, THEN INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS DURING
SAT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF RAIN. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 NM OR
LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008>010.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/MENSCH
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...KJC/MENSCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page