601
FXUS61 KBOX 171814
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
114 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE MAIN SNOW SHIELD LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCH
OR TWO FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 2-4" ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA AND NW CT, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE BERKSHIRES.
- LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING 1-2" OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SNE LATER
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WITH 2-4" ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MA/RI.
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF MAIN SNOW SHIELD REMAINS UNCERTAIN... SO
THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. MAIN IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & TEMPS.
THE PEAK OF THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE TUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
- MILDER TEMPS ARRIVE LATER WED-THU WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH 1-
4 INCHES EXPECTED. STILL CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE CHANCE FOR UP TO
5 INCHES IN THE BERKSHIRES.
MAIN FORCING WILL COME FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FIRST OF THE TWO ARRIVES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG. GREATEST SWATH OF QPF
WILL BE FROM WESTERN CT TO NORTHWESTERN MA WHERE THE GREATEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WILL
BE A SOMEWHAT DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS WE WILL BRIEFLY HAVE THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET ON ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED MAINLY NW OF HFD-ORH-FIT.
STEADIEST SNOW SHIFTS NW THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOMES MORE
FOCUSED OVER WESTERN MA. THEN, THE PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL SHIFT BACK
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SE.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FLIP TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
NEAR AND NW OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON BUT NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW OMEGA VALUES OF 10-15 UBAR/SEC IN THE DGZ ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SE. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES UP TO 0.5"/HR ALONG THIS FEATURE, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. SOUTHEAST OF I-95, HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO FLIP RAIN SHOWERS TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SLUSHY COATINGS POSSIBLE. WHILE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT 0.05-0.10" LESS QPF, STILL EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW OF BDL-ORH-FIT WHERE 1-4
INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND IN THE
BERKSHIRES WHERE LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MA, RI INTO EASTERN CT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM WESTERN MA INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
BIGGEST IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
WORCESTER HILLS. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED IN LOW ELEVATIONS WHERE
TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON ROADS.
PRECIP ENDS IN EASTERN NEW ENG BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING 1-2" OF SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR SNE LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WITH 2-4" ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN MA/RI. NORTHWEST EXTENT OF MAIN SNOW SHIELD REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...SO THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE STEADY SNOW SHIELD LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS TOO FAR AWAY FROM US TO BRING US A MAJOR WINTER
STORM. NONETHELESS..SHORTWAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST WILL
PULL SOME OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES THAT WOULD MAKE A CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THEM.
A LOT WILL BE DETERMINED ON HOW MUCH THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE CAN DIG
AND RESULT IN A BACKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE ARE ALSO SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
STEADY SNOW WILL BE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPS ALSO MAY BE
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN SPOTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO WE EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE TRAVEL ISSUES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENTLY...OUR BEST ESTIMATES ON SNOWFALL ARE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF RI/EASTERN MA.
NOW IF THE TRACK ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WE
MAY SEE 2-4" OF SNOW WELL BACK INTO THE INTERIOR WITH A SWATH OF
3-6" ACROSS RI/SE MA. IF THE TRACK WERE TO END UP ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND JUST AN INCH OR TWO
ACROSS RI/SE MA.
SO IN A NUTSHELL...CURRENTLY OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS AN INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 2-4" ACROSS PARTS OF RI/SE MA.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS & TEMPS.
THE PEAK OF THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE TUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. 850T WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN -18C AND -20C WITH THE COLD PEAKING TUE INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS. THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY WED AFTERNOON...WHICH IS STILL BELOW
NORMAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 4...MILDER TEMPS ARRIVE LATER WED-THU WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
MUCH MILDER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND PERHAPS
EVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS MAY RETURN BY FRI BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TAF UPDATE: 18Z
THOUGH 00Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE TIMING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LEADING TO IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS,
LIKE KBDL & KORH. SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. DIMINISHING LINE OF
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z-00Z.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LULL IN ACTIVITY. LIGHT TO CALM WIND.
SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z CEILING FALL TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SNOW
ARRIVES. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH VISBY
FALLING TO 3SM-5SM. STEADIER SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM 21Z-00Z, AFTERWARDS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH NEAR
1" PER HOUR FOR TERMINALS SOUTHEAST OF I-95. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z, BECOMING VFR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. SW
WINDS TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY, BRIEFLY NNE 20Z-02Z, THEN TO THE NNW THERE
AFTER 02Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z, LEADING TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. VFR TONIGHT, TRENDING BACK TO MVFR SUNDAY
MIDMORNING AS SNOW ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 15Z, BUT FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT WITH ARRIVAL AROUND
18Z-20Z. CONDITIONS LOWER AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR/LIFR WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH 21Z, IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SNOW RETURNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY S-SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTS TO 25+ KT, THEN
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002>004-008>010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ005>007-012>023.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/FT
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/FT
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