513
FXUS61 KBOX 251808
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
108 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- TRENDED SNOWFALL TOTALS HIGHER FOR NORTHEAST MA, CENTRAL MA
HIGH TERRAIN, AND THE BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING INTENSE, HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH 1-2"+ INCH
PER HOUR SNOW RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAKING FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- ABNORMALLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANOTHER STORM OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING INTENSE, HEAVY SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH 1-2"+
INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARRIVES IN WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 9AM-
11AM AND 11AM-1PM IN THE EAST AND LASTS INTO MONDAY. EXPECTING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"-2+" PER HOUR TO START SOON AFTER STORM ONSET,
LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 12"-18" RANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
8"-12" EXPECTED ON THE CAPE, ISLANDS, AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHEASTERN MA WILL LIKELY SEE 18"-20",
INCLUDING BOSTON.
A WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM MOVES OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH/MIDWEST AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGION SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
NARROWED IN ON AN 850MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, BRINGING PWATS 0.75"-1.0" (200%-300% OF NORMAL) AND VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LARGE, NEGATIVE
OMEGA VALUES WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SNOWFLAKES. ALSO EXPECTING A COASTAL FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A SHARPER GRADIENT DIVIDING THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS FROM CANADA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BEING FUNNELED IN OFF
THE OCEAN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THIS IS A
MESO-/MICRO- SCALE FEATURE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
EXACTLY THE BANDING WILL SET UP, BUT THINKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
PLYMOUTH AND WORCESTER AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH PWATS, STRONG FRONTOGENESIS, AND COASTAL FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATES THIS EVENT WILL BE QUITE THE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKER, WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"-2+" PER
HOUR LIKELY OVER SEVERAL HOURS INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
IS ALSO INDICATING GUSTY WINDS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, CAPE AND ISLANDS. HREF
BLIZZARD PROBS REMAIN AROUND 20%-30%, SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG-
DURATION BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT PERIODS OF
SHORT-LIVED WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
AS THE STORM ADVANCES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECTING A SHOT OF WARM
AIR TO MIX IN ALOFT AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO 32F.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SLEET TO MIX INTO THE SNOW, LOWERING SNOW
RATIOS AND CREATING A WETTER SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE TOTALS. THE GFS
AND NAM BRING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE SOUTH
SHORE, BUT CURRENTLY FAVORING A MIX OF THE ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND NBM
WHICH KEEP THE WARM LAYER CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE, CAPE, AND ISLANDS.
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, CUTTING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALLER SNOWFLAKES. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY
LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT FLURRIES. PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW FLURRIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL PLAIN, INCLUDING BOSTON, INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABNORMALLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER STORM OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND'S
SNOWSTORM. DRY, COLD NW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NORMAL
HIGHS/LOWS FOR LATE JANUARY ARE IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY; WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME FLURRIES OFF AND ON BUT ON THE WHOLE THINGS LOOK DRY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL STORM OFF THE COAST TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND BUT ODDS ARE STILL FAVORABLE THAT IT WOULD PASS HARMLESSLY
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
UPDATE: 18Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HEAVY SNOW, WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-3" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. SNOW LESSENS IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY CAPE COD, WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. SNOW TOTALS MONDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 8-12" ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS TO 14-20" ELSEWHERE, WITH 20-24"
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHEASTERN COAST, INCLUDING
BOS. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL FROM LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREADS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SNOW BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP MONDAY MORNING. PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BRINGS OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN,
INCLUDING BOSTON, THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH WESTERLIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR, BECOMING VFR. SKY COVER BECOMING CLEAR. NW WIND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COASTAL STORM
ARRIVES AND BRINGS GALE-FOCE WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST 20-35 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT
WARMER AIR NOSES NORTH, CHANGING TO RAIN OR SLEET ON MOST OF SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFTS NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND, SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...BW/MCMINN
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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