042
FXUS61 KBOX 252320
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
620 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN 12-24 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE
BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS
DRIVEN BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. OTHERWISE, A HIGH IMPACT STORM CONTINUES
TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND MOST DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH 12-2AM.
- LINGERING MOISUTRE LEADS TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
12-2AM WITH 1-3" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
AFTER A BIT OF AN EARLY START, SNOWFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 1
INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFFSHORE HELPING TO INCREASE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE
BULK OF THE SNOW FALLS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
STORM TOTALS ARE STILL HOLDING STEADY AS OF THE 18Z UPDATE WITH
TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12"-18" RANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH 8"-12" EXPECTED ON THE CAPE, ISLANDS, AND
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHEASTERN MA
WILL LIKELY SEE 18"-24" FOR MUCH OF THE 495 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
BOSTON METRO AREA.
COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. IN RESPONSE, A
DEEP AND ROBUST LAYER OF LIFT WILL EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN
INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ). BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 FAVORABLE LAYERS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH, ONE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, AND ANOTHER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WITH
THE DEEP AND SUBSTANTIAL NEAR SURFACE COLD POOL. ATTENTION TURNS
FROM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (925-
850MB) AS A STEEP LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCOMING COASTAL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COASTAL FRONT
INITIALLY RACES NORTH ACROSS THE OCEAN THEN SLOWS TO A CRAWL THIS
EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ON LAND.
WARM FRONT ALOFT STILL CONTINUES NORTH OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECTING +SN
TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO HEAVY SLEET ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND MOVE
INLAND BETWEEN 00-05Z FURTHEST INLAND EXTENT LOOKS TO BE ALONG WEST
TO EAST CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM PROVIDENCE RI TO PLYMOUTH MA. IN
THESE LOCATIONS THE MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES TO +1-2C. PERHAPS
A BIT MORE EXCITING FOR US WEATHER LOVERS IS THE NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR +TSSN AS THE MID LEVELS WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 30-40KTS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES JUST
S OF NANTUCKET. THUS, COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, CAPE AND
ISLANDS. HREF BLIZZARD PROBS REMAIN AROUND 20%-30%, BETWEEN 22
AND 05Z. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WILL BE SLEET AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS AS WELL AS THE
SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTIEST WINDS.
FURTHER INLAND, THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT STOPS SHORT OF CHANGING
THE PRECIP TYPE TO SLEET AND INSTEAD BRINGS A LOWER RATIO SNOW THAT
THAT WILL HELP TO CAP TOTALS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 32 AS FAR INLAND AS PVD BUT
STAYING IN THE LOWER TEENS AT ORH ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT!
PROLIFIC SNOW WINDS DOWN FROM SW TO NE AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 500-700MB RH VALUES FALL TO 40-
60%. RH VALUES LIKE THESE ARE HOSTILE TO SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND
INSTEAD FAVOR A PERIOD OF "SNIZZLE" OR FLURRIES. ANY LINGERING SNOW
EVENTUALLY TAPERS TO LIGHT FLURRIES. LAST HOLD OUT FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OCEAN-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT KEY MESSAGE WILL BETTER FOCUS ON
MONDAY'S SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE AS IT PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW MOVES WELL N OF THE CWA BUT LOW PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE IN VICINITY MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE FRONTAL LIFT
IS WELL AWAY FROM THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z MONDAY SO EXPECTING
DECENT CLEAN UP WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED NE FLOW AROUND ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE MAINTAINS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE W AND SO THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES,
WITH AREAS W OF THE CT RIVER CLOSER TO 1" AND EASTERN MA CLOSER TO
4". THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL GIVES US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN 12-24
INCH STORM TOTALS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL LOCALLY
ENHANCE TOTALS AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
BOSTON WHERE THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERS THE LONGEST. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN AFTER 00Z TUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABNORMALLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER STORM OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND'S
SNOWSTORM. DRY, COLD NW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NORMAL
HIGHS/LOWS FOR LATE JANUARY ARE IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY; WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME FLURRIES OFF AND ON BUT ON THE WHOLE THINGS LOOK DRY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL STORM OFF THE COAST TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND BUT ODDS ARE STILL FAVORABLE THAT IT WOULD PASS HARMLESSLY
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z UPDATE
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HEAVY SNOW, WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-3" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. SNOW LESSENS IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY CAPE COD, WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. SNOW TOTALS MONDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 8-12" ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND ISLANDS TO 14-20" ELSEWHERE, WITH 20-24"
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHEASTERN COAST, INCLUDING
BOS. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREADS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SNOW BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP MONDAY MORNING. PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BRINGS OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN,
INCLUDING BOSTON, THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH WESTERLIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR, BECOMING VFR. SKY COVER BECOMING CLEAR. NW WIND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COASTAL STORM
ARRIVES AND BRINGS GALE-FOCE WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST 20-35 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT
WARMER AIR NOSES NORTH, CHANGING TO RAIN OR SLEET ON MOST OF SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFTS NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND, SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/FT
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...DOOLEY
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