013
FXUS61 KBOX 260742
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
242 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE BEHIND LOW PRESSURE AS
IT PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY.
- ABNORMALLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WITH YET ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE OFF
THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE AS IT PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY NOON TODAY AND
THE EXPECTED DRY SLOT HAS MOVED OVERHEAD SHUTTING OFF EFFICIENT SNOW
MAKING. SO, WHILE LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE
STRONG FORCING THAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY WILL MEAN MUCH LESS IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY. OVERALL, EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN
INLAND SNE WITH 2-5 INCHES MORE LIKELY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MA COASTLINE. THIS IS WHERE NE WIND
TRAJECTORY OFF THE WATER TOGETHER WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A PICKUP IN SNOW COVERAGE BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABNORMALLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WITH YET ANOTHER
STORM POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
QUIET WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS OUR ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK AS DRY,
ABNORMALLY COLD NW FLOW LINGERS OVERHEAD MOST OF THE WEEK.
SNOWSTORM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NORMAL
HIGHS/LOWS FOR LATE JANUARY ARE IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY; WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME FLURRIES OFF AND ON BUT ON THE WHOLE THINGS LOOK DRY. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL STORM OFF THE COAST TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. CAN WE MAKE IT 3 SUNDAY COASTAL STORMS IN A ROW? WE'LL
SEE!
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z UPDATE
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
SNOW BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP THIS MORNING. PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BRINGS OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
PLAIN, INCLUDING BOSTON, THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO NNW LATE
MORNING (14-16Z) AND FLURRIES FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR, BECOMING VFR. SKY COVER BECOMING CLEAR. NW WIND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND SHIFTING WSW.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE-FOCE WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AS THE LOW EXITS. SEAS 10-12 FT. WIND
SHIFTS NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20
KNOTS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND, SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS GUST 25-40 KTS WITH SEAS 7-10 FT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO
5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
255-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251-254.
DISCUSSION...BW/MCMINN
AVIATION...BW/MCMINN
MARINE...BW/MCMINN
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