330
FXUS61 KBOX 261859
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
159 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING CANCELED. GALE WARNINGS AND FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORIES POSTED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
AS IT PULLS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BRING COLD AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE
BEHIND LOW PRESSURE AS IT PULLS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A BUNCH OF LARGER
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. ONE LAST ROUND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE FOR SOME. CANCELED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING BECAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL NOT MAKE
CONDITIONS MUCH WORSE THAN THEY ARE ALREADY. TRAVELERS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A MODERATING TREND THIS.
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR DRIER ALBEIT MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. OTHERWISE,
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
NEXT WEEKEND AS WE ARE BEGINNING TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF YET
ANOTHER POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS
QUITE LOW AS ANY IMPACTS ARE NEARLY A WEEK OUT.
BIG STORY LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
INTERIOR AND LOWER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL VALUES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER RELATED HEADLINES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE NBM IS SHOWING WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE
-10S. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR OUR MARINE
INTERESTS, WE WILL MONITOR THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT
SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -14 TO -8C. CERTAINLY NOT A
WARM DAY BY ANY MEASURE, BUT IT WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE
THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FINALLY, GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON THE THREAT OF A COASTAL LOW
LATER SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT,
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO A
SYSTEM THAT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. SYNOPTICALLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AS ANOMALOUS
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING DISPLACES THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE
NEGATIVELY- TILTED SHORTWAVE THEN TRIGGERS CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING SOMEWHAT
PEDANTIC HERE SO AS TO ILLUSTRATE THAT THERE ARE MANY MOVING
PARTS WITH THIS SETUP. HOW ANOMALOUS AND EXPANSIVE WILL THE HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING BE? THE N-S EXTENT OF THE BLOCK WILL
DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. HOW
DEEP WILL THE SHORTWAVE BE AS IT MOVES SOUTH? THAT WILL HELP TO
DICTATE THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW. WILL IT BE NEGATIVELY
TILTED? THIS WILL ALSO HELP DETERMINE THE LOW STRENGTH AND
TRACK. THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT GUIDANCE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
PRODUCE A MYRIAD OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TO PUT IT PLAINLY, THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
ANY SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE BRIEFLY
MODERATE SNOW HEADING INTO THE EVENING PUSH.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR, BECOMING VFR. SKY COVER BECOMING CLEAR. NW WIND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND SHIFTING WSW.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEFLY POOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 NM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
GOOD VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. EXPECTING FREQUENT GALE-
FORCE GUSTS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS, ROUGH SEAS,
AND ARCTIC AIR, SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY. GALE WARNINGS AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS, AND THE CORRESPONDING RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY, DIMINISH
AFTER DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231-250-254.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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