137
FXUS61 KBOX 280807
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
307 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK, PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD PROMPT ALERTS FOR DANGEROUS COLD. STILL MONITORING A
COASTAL STORM AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THE STORM'S TRACK
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COLD/WIND CHILLS DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- STILL MONITORING A POSSIBLE LATE-WEEKEND WINTER COASTAL STORM,
BUT THERE REMAINS LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COLD/WIND CHILLS
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOVERNED BY AN DRY AND COLD
WNW FLOW, DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE FORCED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THIS ACTIVE FLOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER TODAY AND THURS, BUT ITS MAIN INFLUENCE
WILL BE TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR
ZERO GIVEN THE EXISTING COLD SNOWPACK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF THE YEAR, IT'S STILL ABNORMALLY
COLD.
AN EVEN STRONGER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THEN ADVECTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AND FRI, WITH 850 MB TEMPS -18 TO -21C. THIS
LEVEL OF COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK SEEMS LIKELY
TO YIELD ONE OR POTENTIALLY TWO NIGHTS OF WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES FOR THURS AND FRI NIGHTS. WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WON'T BE AS STRONG AS WE'VE SEEN AT VARIOUS POINTS IN THE WINTER, IT
WILL ADD TO THE DEGREE OF COLD; WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -25 DEGREE
RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR THURS NIGHT AND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT SEEN TO THIS POINT IN WINTER. ALERTS FOR DANGEROUS
COLD PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST THURS NIGHT AND COULD BE
NEEDED IN SOME INTERIOR/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS FRI NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STILL MONITORING A POSSIBLE LATE-WEEKEND WINTER
COASTAL STORM, BUT THERE REMAINS LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK.
STILL MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS PERTAINING TO A COASTAL STORM WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO THREATEN THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD, ITS TRACK AND HOW CLOSE IT MAY GET
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. ALL OUTCOMES
REMAIN ON THE TABLE, RANGING FROM A DRY PASS OFFSHORE AND NO IMPACT
AT ALL TO A HIGH-CEILING, SLOW-MOVING WINTER STORM WITH SEVERAL
IMPACTS.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE STILL IS NO CLARITY ON WHERE THE STORM
TRACKS. THIS IS VISUALIZED BY A LARGE SPREAD IN ECMWF/GEM/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW TRACKS, WHICH PRODUCES THIS ELONGATED WEST-
EAST BEND IN THE MODEL-ENSEMBLE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD
PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS EARLIER TODAY STARTED TO ADJUST
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE INCHED BACK
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO BE
THE CASE TODAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS AGAIN KEYS ON THE
STRENGTH DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX UPPER LOW/PV ANOMALY
WHICH IS NOW MEANDERING AROUND HUDSON BAY. DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE, THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DIGS
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AROUND FRI AND SETTLES EITHER INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SAT, WHICH HELPS
GET CYCLOGENESIS GOING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. EXACTLY WHEN THIS OCCURS AND HOW SOON DOES
THIS MID/UPPER FEATURE CLOSE OFF WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
INCLUDING US IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SOONER THIS PROCESS
OCCURS, SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/28TH GFS WHICH IS THE SOONEST TO
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT CROSSES THE US/CANADA BORDER,
THE WORSE THE OUTCOME GETS - AS IT WOULD DRAW THE SURFACE
CYCLONE CLOSEST TO THE EAST COAST. WE PROBABLY WON'T HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON HOW THAT SHAKES OUT UNTIL THURS AT EARLIEST, AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BACK- AND-FORTH WAFFLING OF STORM TRACKS
PLAYED OUT IN THE MODEL WORLD UNTIL THAT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
WHILE THE STORM'S TRACK IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN, MOST
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SURFACE CYCLONE ANTICIPATED TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FEATURES AN EXCEPTIONALLY-COLD AIRMASS
GIVEN THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE (-14C AT 850 MB OVER JACKSONVILLE
FL). ONCE THAT AIR GETS NEAR THE WARM GULFSTREAM CURRENT, STRONG
AIR- SEA BAROCLINICITY SHOULD REALLY HELP TO FACILITATE RAPID
DEEPENING. THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SEA-
LEVEL PRESSURES IN THE 960-980 MB RANGE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC WATERS. PROVIDED SUCH A STORM TRACKS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND, A STORM
THAT STRONG WOULD CERTAINLY ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS, LARGE WAVES/HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND
COASTAL FLOODING, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW. IT'S TOO SOON TO
KNOW WITH CERTAINTY IF THAT'S REALISTIC, BUT THAT IS THE CEILING
IT COULD HAVE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE STORM'S EVENTUAL TRACK - EITHER
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, OR WELL OFFSHORE - IS STILL A KEY
UNKNOWN. EXPECT THERE TO BE CONTINUED CHANGES UNTIL ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, AND IT'S HOPED
THERE IS MORE CLARITY ON THAT BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. THE
IMPORTANT THING FOR NOW IS TO NOT SINGLE OUT ANY ONE POSSIBILITY
AS BEING MORE LIKELY THAN ANOTHER.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. FEW TO SCT
STRATOCUMULUS FORM THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030 TO 040. PERIODS OF
MVFR POSSIBLE ON ACK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY BUT BECOME BREEZY AT 10-15 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
DECREASING WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT, REMAINING UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 5
FEET. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD INLAND AIR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAKES ITS
WAY OVER THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL
ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL
ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 21 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW. VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO/KP
MARINE...LOCONTO/KP
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