040
FXUS61 KBOX 282328
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
628 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL MONITORING A MAJOR COASTAL STORM AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT THE STORM'S TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW, WIND, AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS IS ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL MONITORING A POSSIBLE LATE-WEEKEND WINTER COASTAL STORM.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
STORM RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS COLD/WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS COLD/WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
VERY COLD PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SNE
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN
ELONGATED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. 925 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -18C TO -22C AT 12Z FRI.
EXPECT LOW TEMPS OF -5F TO +5F THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BUT ENOUGH WIND TO DRIVE
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -20F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, WITH -20 TO -25 WIND CHILLS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH
OF SNE. EVEN COLDER AIR TEMPS FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10F AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT WITH A BIT LESS WIND SO EXPECT
SIMILAR WIND CHILLS TO THU NIGHT, GENERALLY -10 TO -20F LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MORE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPS
THU, THEN CLEARING THU NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRI INTO SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2....STILL MONITORING A POSSIBLE LATE-WEEKEND WINTER
COASTAL STORM. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A CLOSE WATCH ON A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM LATE
THIS WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EAST COAST. DESPITE THIS CONSISTENT SIGNAL, MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON
THE STORM TRACK, A CRITICAL DETAIL THAT WILL DICTATE THE BOTH THE
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS AS WELL AS THE OVERALL FOOTPRINT OF THE STORM.
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETTING UP OVER
WESTERN CONUS/CANADA, HELPING A TROUGH DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
LATER IN THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LACK AGREEMENT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INCLUDING THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH, WHETHER A 500MB LOW CLOSES OFF, AND HOW IT TRACKS.
THIS IS PRESENT IN THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH HALF OF THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE SHOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW. THERE ARE SOLUTIONS THAT FAVOR A
CLOSED LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, POTENTIALLY
SHIFTING AS SOUTH AS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINAS BEFORE IT TRACKS NORTH.
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST IT WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE IMPORTANT AS IT WOULD INFLUENCE THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND LATER TRACK.
THIS AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW WILL KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN
ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
ACROSS GUIDANCE WITH SOLUTIONS SHOWING DEEP SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT(SUB-980MB) OFF THE EAST COAST. THERE IS A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR RAPID/DEEP CYCLOGENESIS WITH COLD AIR INTERACTING WITH
THE WARMER MARITIME WATERS, HELPING ESTABLISH A SHARP BAROCLINIC
ZONE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN
STILL, THERE IS A LARGE VARIANCE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSLATE TO
IMPACTS AND THE FOOTPRINT OF STORM IMPACTS. TRACKS RANGE FROM A
HIT TO A FULL MISS WITH SOME IN BETWEEN SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
"GRAZE" HIT TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN REGARDS TO IMPACTS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALSO SIGNALS AT DIFFERENCES IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST (OFFSHORE) WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE THE LOW TRACK. THIS MAY LIKELY BE A MORE COMPLEX DETAIL AS
THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WOULD DEPEND ON THE SMALL-SCALE
DETAILS/THERMODYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES. CONVECTION MAY
ACT TO ENHANCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
MORE INLAND.
PLENTY TO BE SAID ON THE PATTERN, LOW TRACKS, MODEL QPF WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF VARIANCE, BUT WHAT PROMPTS THE CLOSE MONITORING ARE THE
SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE AN IMPACTFUL STORM. THE UPPER PERCENTILES OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS RELATIVE
TO THE LOWER DISPLAYING THE "HIT OR MISS" TYPE OUTLOOK OF THE STORM.
THE 75TH/90TH PERCENTILES (WORST CASE SCENARIOS OF THE ENSEMBLE
SUITE) CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE. ACROSS
ENSEMBLES, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS EVEN A FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK
MAY STILL IMPACT THOSE AREAS. THE LOWER PROBABILITIES AS YOU GO
FURTHER WEST ARE A SIGN OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK WHICH IS
WHAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF THE FOOTPRINT OF THE STORM OVERALL.
THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI INDICATES PROBABILITES 20-60% FOR
MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS REALISTICALLY DISPLAYS POTENTIAL
FOR A STORM WHILE LEVERAGING THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK, AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM.
SNOW WOULD NOT ONLY THE THE CONCERN IN THE CASE OF A STRONG COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE WITH A CLOSER TO SHORE TRACK. A STRONG JET/PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT A LARGE STRONG WIND FOOTPRINT WITH THE STORM.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. ACROSS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THERE ARE PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 58 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE, NANTUCKET, AND EVEN
HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS, LARGE WAVES, AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. IT'S
STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW THE EXPECTED IMPACTS, BUT THIS SHOWS THAT THE
CEILING IS HIGH FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER.
BOTTOM LINE, WE ARE FIVE DAYS OUT STILL. IT IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SHIFTS IN TRACK FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUED SPREAD AMONG
GUIDANCE. THE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH MEANS WE STILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS, SOME POINTING TO AN IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND OTHERS A MISS. IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT TO NOT LOCK IN ON A SOLUTION AND LOOK AT THIS FROM A
PROBABILISTIC STANDPOINT WHILE NOTING TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. THE
HOPE IS THAT WE GAIN MORE CLARITY IN THE NEXT DAY AS SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD BE SOME LLWS
TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE FASTER THEN
SURFACE WINDS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CHANCE
SN.
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
DECREASING WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT, REMAINING UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 5
FEET. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD INLAND AIR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAKES ITS
WAY OVER THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
SUNDAY: STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 22 FT. SNOW LIKELY, CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 24 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
21 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJC/MENSCH
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KJC/MENSCH
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