780
FXUS61 KBOX 301756
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1256 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING FOR HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS. GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE COASTAL STORM SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE BULK
OF THE SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE CONFINED
TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A COASTAL STORM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO PASS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST OVERALL IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ACROSS SOUTH SHORE,
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER-
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH LESSER OVERALL IMPACT FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
- MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRIGID TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. STILL A FEW MORE
HOURS TO GO, AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILLS
OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE BERKSHIRES WHERE WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN
AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN IN THE ZERO TO -10F RANGE.
CONTINUE TO DRESS IN LAYERS IF VENTURING OUTSIDE WITH THE LOWEST
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. IT WILL STILL BE A RATHER
FRIGID DAY EVEN WHEN THE SUN COMES UP, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
EVEN THOUGH WE'LL BE STARTING TONIGHT COLDER THAN WE DID LAST
NIGHT, EXPECTED LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT COULD
LIMIT HOW LOW WIND CHILLS GET TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWEST WIND CHILLS IN MOST AREAS ARE AROUND THE -5 TO
AROUND THE -15F RANGE, THUS A BIT MORE MARGINAL, BUT COULD BE
LOW ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POSSIBLY WARRANT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM EXTENDING THE
ADVISORIES UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE AS TO HOW LOW WIND CHILLS
GOT THIS MORNING. EVEN IF THE WINDS TURN OUT LIGHTER, LOWS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 BELOW IN MOST AREAS, AND AROUND 0 TO 5
BELOW NEAR THE COASTLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL STORM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO PASS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GREATEST OVERALL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE ACROSS SOUTH SHORE, CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER-ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH LESSER OVERALL IMPACT
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
CONTINUING THE TREND YESTERDAY, THE 00Z/30TH ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW A POWERFUL SUB-980 MB
COASTAL STORM OFFSHORE THE NC/SC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
MOVING ENE SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SUNDAY AND INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES NOW SHOW
RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING OF MEMBER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS CLUSTERED
SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE UNTIL IT IS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
ODDS OF A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT AND GREATER
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REAL
ESTATE IS DWINDLING NOW, WITH AN OFFSHORE PASS BEING FAVORED. EVEN
WITH THE OFFSHORE PASS MORE FAVORED, THE SYSTEM'S ANTICIPATED LARGE
SIZE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME IMPACT FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, GUSTY WINDS,
LARGE WAVES AND COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH AND DUNE EROSION.
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STEADIEST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO SOUTH SHORE, CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. BUT
EVEN THERE, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED FOLLOWING THE CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 03Z NBM 5.0 SNOWFALL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
OF 6-INCHES (DOWN TO 25-50%) AND 12-INCHES (DOWN TO 10-15%). THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST IN TERMS OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GUIDANCE, BUT IN THE FACE OF A DRY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO INTERIOR WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF ITS MODELED QPF SHIELD HAS DECREASED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS
SEEMS MORE LIMITED TO NANTUCKET, WHERE OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CAPE COD, MARTHA'S
VINEYARD, AND SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 4 TO
6 INCH RANGE. WE HELD THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE STORM'S LARGE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH, LIGHT-ACCUMULATING SNOW
FROM OCEAN EFFECT BANDS COULD STILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE I-95 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHEAST MA SUNDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AT LEAST UNTIL THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND
THE WINDS TURN MORE N TO NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN STILL, WITH POOR
SNOWGROWTH, THAT'S NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
COUPLE INCHES, WITH LESSER OVERALL IMPACT (PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 4 OR MORE INCHES BEING LESS THAN 20% FOR THIS AREA). DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FURTHER WESTWARD INTO WESTERN RI,
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
GUSTY TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED GIVEN
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONGEST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE A 950 MB NORTHERLY JETSTREAK OF 55-60 KT IS LOCATED. GUSTS IN
THE 35-45 MPH RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 55 MPH OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. STORM AND
GALE WATCHES WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE WATERS. NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH AT LEAST A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM
SURGE AND STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO
PERHAPS MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST DURING HIGH TIDES SUNDAY MORNING, SUNDAY EVENING, AND MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY.
BASED UPON THE PROJECTED OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM, THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO CAPE COD,
NANTUCKET, AND MARTHAS VINEYARD WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING
MODERATE FLOODING EXISTS. HOWEVER, BUILDING SEAS OF 20-25 FEET
OFFSHORE WILL ADD ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE
FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTH TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER, SO DESPITE LOWER
WATER LEVELS, THOSE AREAS COULD STILL SEE MODERATE IMPACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LONG OVERWATER FETCH SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT
IN RECENT YEARS INCLUDING NEWBURYPORT/PLUM ISLAND, SANDWICH, CHATHAM,
AND EDGARTOWN.
SHOULD THE STORM TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD DECREASE, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SPANNING
THREE TIDE CYCLES. A TREND CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD RAISE
THE ODDS OF MODERATE FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE COASTLINE, BUT
THE CHANCES OF REACHING MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS WOULD STILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
AS A REMINDER, MINOR FLOODING REFERS TO SHALLOW FLOODING UP TO
1 FOOT DEEP AND CAN RESULT IN TEMPORARY ROAD CLOSURES ON MORE
VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADS. MODERATE FLOODING REFERS TO FLOODING 1
TO 3 FEET DEEP AND CAN CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES,
DAMAGE TO SHOREFRONT PROPERTY, AND DEBRIS ON COASTAL ROADS FROM
LARGE WAVES. VEHICLES LEFT IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS CAN ALSO BE
FLOODED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. GUSTY WEST WINDS
UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DIMINISH WITH SUNSET,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT WNW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY WEATHER, BUT MVFR/VFR CIGS ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING IN
EASTERN MA.
SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THIS PERIOD WITH A COMBINATION OF
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS 15-25 KT SUNDAY, BECOME NNW SUN
NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU SATURDAY.
GUSTY WEST AT 20-25 KNOTS DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WNW WINDS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING ON THE WATERS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY
* DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY
A PERIOD OF WNW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN
DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT ACCRETION
OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORIES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WHICH TRACKS WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STORM
FORCE NE GUSTS TO 50-55 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS PEAKING DURING
SUNDAY, WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 20+ FT ON THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. IN ADDITIONS, AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT THOUGH SUN
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY, CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 17 FT. SNOW LIKELY, FREEZING SPRAY. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 NM
OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY, CHANCE OF SNOW.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
237-250-251-254-256.
STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-232-250-254>256.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ232>234-255.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233-
234.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-
237.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/KP
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...LOCONTO/KP
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