693
FXUS61 KBOX 071910
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW IS COMING TO AN END FOR EASTERN MA IN THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS AFTER
SOME HYPER LOCALIZED SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. PARTS OF NORTHEAST MA
AND SOUTHERN RI WHERE RECEIVED AROUND 12 AND 9 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF MA,
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER SOME HYPER LOCALIZED SNOWFALL THIS MORNING, SNOW TAPERS OFF
THROUGH 7PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
- DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HAZARDOUS FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS.
- QUIET TO START NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER SOME HYPER LOCALIZED SNOWFALL THIS MORNING,
SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH 7PM EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
WELL THE VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WE EXPECTED HAS LIVED UP TO
EXPECTATIONS WITH HYPER LOCALIZED MAXIMA OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHERN RI. A SMALL STRIP IN ESSEX COUNTY HAS RECEIVED OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF RI RECEIVED 8 INCHES BY 10 AM.
THE COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH, THE ARCTIC FRONT, AND OCEAN
EFFECT ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF WORCESTER THROUGH 4-7 PM DROPPING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7PM. THE ONLY PLACE
EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW CONTINUE BEYOND AROUND 7PM IS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WHERE THE FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AND EVEN OFF AND ON THROUGH
MID DAY SUNDAY. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY ON CAPE COD WITH EVEN SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TODAY'S ARCTIC FRONT USHERS
IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS (925 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -16C),
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LLJ (40-45 KTS AT 925MB), 30-40MPH OF WHICH
SHOULD MIX DOWN AS STRONG GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -15F IN
EASTERN MA/RI AND BETWEEN -15 AND -30 F IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE WORCESTER HILLS AND BERKSHIRES. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 7 AM (WITH ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS +/-
0F) IT WILL BE A SLOW WARM UP, NEVER FEELING ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT CRACK A WIND CHILL
ABOVE ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...QUIET TO START NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST CONTINUES ITS WAY OUT TO
SEA FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN. GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN, AND HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN WITH CONTINUED
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. THESE ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL, BUT MAY FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN
WHAT WE'VE DEALT WITH LATELY.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME MIDWEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
DOESN'T HAVE A SOLID GRASP ON TRACK OR EXACT TIMING, WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. BUT GENERALLY, 925 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
CLIMB TO AROUND -5C AND EVEN 0C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW FROM THE
NW MAY CROSS OVER THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT AGAIN, IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR
CERTAIN AND MUCH CAN AND WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS AND LIFR ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI TERMINALS. INCREASING
N-NW WINDS FROM W TO E WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MVFR IMPROVES TO VFR DURING THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WHERE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LINGER IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET TO 40 KT POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25-30 KTS IN THE MORNING,
DECREASING TO TO 18-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HEADLINES:
* GALE WARNINGS FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
* HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MON MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS 30-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT. AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUSTY GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PRODUCES ICE
ACCRETION RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR CREATING VERY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS FOR VESSELS THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEAS PEAK AROUND
8-12 FT TONIGHT, DECREASING TO 6-8 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR MAZ002>004-008>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004-
005-012>021-026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MAZ005>007-013>023-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ006-
007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...BW/KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
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