197
FXUS61 KBOX 081118
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
618 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
- DRY AND CALM TO START THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVES MIDWEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS COLD THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.
CLASSIC SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONFINED TO LOWEST 1K FT WITH SHARP INVERSION ABOVE. WIND CHILLS
WILL BOTTOM OUT THROUGH 8 AM AT 10-20 BELOW ZERO IN EASTERN MA,
RI AND CT AND 20-30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW TODAY BUT DEEPENS TO
ABOUT 2K FT. WE GET SOME MODERATION TODAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE A BIT ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER THROUGH THE TEENS. BUT
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30 MPH
AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS AND BELOW ZERO IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA. WITH A
STEADY NW WIND UP TO 15 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5-15
BELOW ZERO AND COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. AIRMASS RECOVERY CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT SE AND OFFSHORE WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY RISING THROUGH MONDAY AS
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRES
WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST FROM THE GT LAKES KEEPING A RELATIVELY
STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS NEW ENG WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAT SKIES TONIGHT, BUT OCEAN EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND CALM TO START THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES MIDWEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SOME
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMETIME TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN
SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES, ADVECTING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PWAT
VALUES JUST UNDER 0.5" TUESDAY EVENING AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB CLOSER TO 0C, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GET CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WARMER AIR
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH, AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS TRACK SE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THE
DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY, WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SETTLE TO AROUND -5C, SUPPORTIVE OF DAYTIME HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID 30S, WHICH WOULD FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL MULTIPLE DAYS OUT,
SO FINER DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, TIMING, AND TRACK
ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AND WILL VERY LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
DRYING THE REGION OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT AND CLIMBING BACK CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WELL AS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
AIRMASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TODAY
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WHERE SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING. NW GUSTS
25-35 KT DECREASING TO 20-25 KT TODAY. NW WINDS 7-15 KT TONIGHT
WITH 20+ KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN MONDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HEADLINES:
* GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
* HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
N-NW GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR COMBINES WITH ROUGH
SEAS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PRODUCES ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO 1
INCH/HR CREATING VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR VESSELS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF
RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002>004-008>012.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ005>007-013>023-026.
RI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-233>237.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-232-250-
251-254>256.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...KJC/HRENCECIN
MARINE...FRANK
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