394
FXUS61 KBOX 081829
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
129 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 5 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- WARMING TREND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND
MILDER CONDITIONS FOLLOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
AFTER A BITTER COLD MORNING WE'VE "WARMED" UP INTO THE TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUN BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL
LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS +/- OF. WINDS, WHILE DECREASING, WILL BE SLOW
TO COME DOWN AS MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE'RE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER EVER SO SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST AS DOES A MID LEVEL RIDGE,
BUT NW WINDS, WHILE LESS BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, WON'T BECOME
TRULY CALM UNTIL LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (925 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND
-8C BY TONIGHT) BUT THIS STILL LEAVES US WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF
WIND CHILL VALUES NECESSITATING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT IN CT AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WHERE MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH -10 TO -20F FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD, FEELING MORE LIKE
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE COLDEST AIR SHIFTS AWAY
FROM SNE; HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOLLOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. NBM SHOWS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN -5
AND -7C.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KTS ADVECTS HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.5" OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM . WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDES ENOUGH FORCING FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDS. SNOW TOTALS LOOK LIGHT AT THE MOMENT AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME PTYPE ISSUES FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SE AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN ZONES INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE KINDS OF SETUPS ARE ADMITTEDLY LOW
CONFIDENCE EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM, SO GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY, THE SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
DRYING THE REGION OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT AND CLIMBING BACK CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WELL AS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
AIRMASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT TODAY. NW WINDS 7-15 KT TONIGHT WITH 20+
KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NW
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN MONDAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HEADLINES:
* GALE WARNINGS CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
* HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
N-NW GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WELL INTO
MONDAY. ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR COMBINES WITH ROUGH SEAS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PRODUCES ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO 1
INCH/HR CREATING VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR VESSELS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF
SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BW/FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW/FT
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