548
FXUS61 KBOX 090536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1236 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA.
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATING TEMPS TODAY BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LESS WIND.
- A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MODERATING TEMPS TODAY BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LESS WIND.
RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVES EAST FROM THE GT
LAKES. AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING, THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHALLOW BUT ENOUGH WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
FAIRLY POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NEW ENG TUE
NIGHT AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. A MODEST
LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT HIGHER PWATS OVER 0.5" INTO
SNE. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED
AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE TUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF TUE NIGHT. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION DRIES OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE
SNOW. THE COLUMN IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT, BUT LOW LEVEL WARMING MAY INTRODUCE A MIX OR CHANGE TO
RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH TUE NIGHT. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT
MOSTLY EAST OF NEW ENG WHICH WOULD FAVOR AREAS TO THE NORTH FOR
THE HEAVIER QPF AND SNOWFALL. INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BUT CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST IS 1-3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN AND NE MA WHERE LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS MAY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TUE, BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NE MA AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. NW
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT TODAY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N-NW TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY 20-25 KT DIMINISHING TONIGHT, THEN
BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KT TUE. SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND DROPPING BELOW SCA ON THE OUTER WATERS TUE. FREEZING SPRAY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TODAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR
LESS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-251.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC
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