721
FXUS61 KBOX 091953
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
253 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
MA.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND.
- A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
- DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS, COMBINED WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS REGIONWIDE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS, ALONG WITH
THE URBAN AREAS WHERE MINS WILL SETTLE IN THE TEENS. NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS, NONETHELESS, COLDER THAN NORMAL. ALSO, NOT
AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL FACTOR GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM
TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NBM AND MOS DATASETS. WE DIDN'T
WANT TO FOLLOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE, AS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT BY PRECLUDE THE COLDEST
TEMP FROM VERIFYING. NEVERTHELESS, A CHILLY/COLDER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
FAIRLY POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH. FIRST BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA 4PM-7PM WEST TO EAST. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. THE
STEADIER/ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MORE DYNAMICAL DRIVEN AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE SNOW, SUPPORTED BY
10-15 UBAR/S OF LIFT IN THE DGZ. THIS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
INDUCES A WEAK SECONDARY LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR SE MA.
SNOW MAY END AS PERIOD OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, IN
RESPONSE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL WAA. ELSEWHERE, SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE PARAMETERS ABOVE, EXPECTING A COATING UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA, POSSIBLE
FOLLOWED BY A TRACE OF ICE BEFORE ENDING. FOR NORTHERN MA, 1-3"
IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ IN NORTHEAST MA,
FOLLOWED BY A TRACE OF ICE BEFORE ENDING. IF 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS
STRONGER/MORE QPF, THE EVENING/NIGHT SHIFT MAY ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. STAY TUNED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING
TUESDAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN.
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY, SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOWARDS
EASTERN MA. THESE COULD LAST LONGER FOR THE OUTER CAPE, BUT
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNKNOWN THIS FAR OUT. NW FLOW RETURNS
AS A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE CIRCULATES AND SHIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN MORE HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS WHOLE CLIPPER SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD
GONE, A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SETTLES IN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND -10C TO
-5C. HIGHS MAKE IT BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THOUGH NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THOUGH, NOTABLY, WIND CHILLS WILL
NOT BE AS BRUTALLY COLD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR/DRY WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z/23Z.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY TO START, THEN VFR CLOUD BASES WITH LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN SNOW, MODERATE AT TIMES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MA,
INCLUDING KBOS. 1-3" SNOW ACCUMS LIKELY, ISOLATED 4+ NORTHEAST
MA. STEADIEST SNOW ROUGHLY 00Z-05Z. SNOW MAY END AS RAIN ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A PERIOD PERIOD OF -FZDZ
ELSEWHERE. LOW PROB OF LLWS 00Z WED - 06Z WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY:
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, ALONG WITH
FREEZING SPRAY ENDING.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WEST WIND IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON,
10-15 KT. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY LIMIT VSBY LATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SSW WINDS 10-15 KT TUE EVENING, BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW MAY LOWER VSBY TO 1 MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS, 1-3 MILES ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY ENDING AS RAIN SOUTHERN
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/NOCERA
AVIATION...MCMINN/NOCERA
MARINE...MCMINN/NOCERA
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