829
FXUS61 KBOX 102020
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
320 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED WEST ALONG ROUTE 2 IN MA FOR
2-4 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
LIGHT SNOW STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
- QUIET PATTERN OVERALL WITH PERIODS OF NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW AND
MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LATE WEEKEND FOR A POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WAS REALLY
MORE LIKE FINE-TUNING BUT THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS UNCHANGED. A
FAST-MOVING CLIPPER BRINGS A MINOR SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WHILE MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, THERE IS A RISK OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1.0" PER HOUR
BETWEEN 8 PM TO ABOUT 3 AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL ENDS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DRIES OUT. HOWEVER, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES SOLELY FOR THE FREEZING RAIN RISK.
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 2 AM TO
7 AM.
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST, AN INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR SHOULD
INTRODUCE SOME PLAIN RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOWFALL HERE AT ALL.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT A FEW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT NUISANCE SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LATE WEEKEND FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO TRACK
UNCERTAINTY.
EXPECTING A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY AND A SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND CAPE ANN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
THOSE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. HREF PROBABILITES
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 10-15% CHANCE OF REACHING 0.1".
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC
REGIONS THURSDAY. ONCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FINALLY GETS PUSHED
OFFSHORE, WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STARTING WEDNESDAY, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NBM PROBABILITIES ONLY INDICATE 10-20% CHANCE OF 0.1"
ACROSS EASTERN MA AS PWATS REMAIN ONLY ABOUT 75% OF NORMAL.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM ANOTHER COASTAL STORM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
THE LOWS THAT TRACK FURTHER WEST (CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK)
STRENGTHENING MORE THAN THOSE THAT TRACK FURTHER EAST, SOMETHING WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CLOUD BASES AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST (THROUGH 21Z ARRIVAL IN WESTERN MA AND 23-00Z ARRIVAL
AT BOS). CEILINGS QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.
LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING TREND TOWARD THE SW AFTER 15Z.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN SNOW, MODERATE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MA, INCLUDING KBOS. STEADIEST SNOW ROUGHLY 00Z-05Z. SNOW MAY
END AS RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY -FZDZ
OR -FZRA AFTER THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HOWEVER,
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
IMPROVING CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. NW WINDS GUSTS UP 20-25
KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SN ARRIVES MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 23-00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD
TREND DOWNWARD AS STEADIER SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z. PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT BETWEEN 00-06Z. THIS WOULD BRING BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES (1/2SM) AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. SNOW MOVES OUT
BY 09Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, THEN
EMERGES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND VEER TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON
WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND 3-6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF FREEZING SPRAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>007-009-014-015-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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