061
FXUS61 KBOX 120651
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
151 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE OUTER CAPE, POTENTIALLY BRUSHING CAPE ANN AND
NANTUCKET THIS MORNING.
- MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE
TRACK UNCERTAINTY.
- RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE OUTER CAPE, POTENTIALLY BRUSHING CAPE ANN AND
NANTUCKET THIS MORNING.
AN INVERTED TROUGH TIED TO A DEPARTED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LIFT TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE BETTER FORCING
WILL BE OFFSHORE; HOWEVER, THIS WILL FAVOR A BRUSH ALONG OUTER CAPE
COD WITH POTENTIALLY A QUICK BRUSH ACROSS CAPE ANN AND PERHAPS
NANTUCKET. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EQUATING MORE TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT WITH HREF MEANS BARELY SHOWING ANY ACCUMULATION AMONGST
HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS IS MORE LIKELY.
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS INTACT TODAY SUPPORT NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FROM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBTLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH NEAR-
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS TREND LIGHTER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGS A LOW (<30%)
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM WITH PWATS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, QPF IS LIMITED TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OR TWO OF
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS BRINGS HIGHS IN
THE MID-30S TO 40 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW-20S, SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW
TO MID-20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
DUE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.
LOOKING AHEAD, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL FOR A ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE RED RIVER BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHERE THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD IS UNCERTAIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE
BROUGHT THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXITING NEAR THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS LOW. THAT BEING SAID, WE
CANNOT JUMP ON TO ANY GIVEN DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN. IT'S A BIT OF
MODEL WHIPLASH. IT WOULD BE GOOD TO LEAN ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN-STREAM ENERGY OFFSHORE,
WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES (GFS AND CANADIAN). CANNOT
DISCREDIT THE OUTLIER, ECMWF ENS, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN-STREAM
ENERGY PHASING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SMALL NUMBER OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS BRING THE SURFACE LOW VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION,
WHICH WOULD MEAN GREATER IMPACTS. EVEN WITH AN OUT TO SEA PATH,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN-
STREAM SHORTWAVE. STILL, THERE IS POUNDS OF TIME TO WATCH. FOR NOW,
KEPT WITH LOWER-END POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY
TUNED!
KEY MESSAGE 4...RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK DOES FEATURE WARMER THAN TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE
PART OF FEBRUARY, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY CPC'S OUTLOOK BETWEEN THE 17TH
AND THE 21ST. SIGNALING THAT TEMPERATURES ARE "LIKELY ABOVE" WHAT IS
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM. THIS DOESN'T MEAN EXCESSIVE WARMTH, RATHER
THAT THE PROBABILITY OF THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS PERIOD IS LEANING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. AN EARLY
ASSESSMENT, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-40S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS EXIT OFF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AROUND 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS. NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS. GUSTS BECOME LIGHTER
AND LESS CONSISTENT IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AFTER 11Z.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 6-11 KTS. FEW GUSTS 18-20 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL SWING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. TOWARD DAYBREAK AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF MA AND RI. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FREEZING SPRAY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF
SNOW. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW, PATCHY FOG.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY/MENSCH
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