229
FXUS61 KBOX 131122
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
622 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE COASTAL STORM THREAT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE TRACK
LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF SPOT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER CONSENSUS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
- A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK, FEATURING A LOW CHANCE OF
REACHING 50F IN PLACES. WHILE DRY, WILL BE MONITORING A MID TO
LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF SPOT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE THE SOUTH AND WEST, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30 TO
MID 30S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESTRICT ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. HIGHER CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WILL
BE IN WESTERN MA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AS HEIGHT FIELDS MODERATE BEHIND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE
DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY
AS MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER CONSENSUS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
THOSE SUFFERING FROM SNOW AND/OR WINTER FATIGUE MIGHT BE PLEASED TO
KNOW THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY, REACHING THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RED
RIVER BASIN. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS, THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
THE DEEP SOUTH, EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME STEERS THE COASTAL
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF AI ENSEMBLE PLACES THE COASTAL LOW
FURTHER NORTH, WITH THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD GRAZING THE
SOUTHERN MOST AREAS OF RI & SOUTHEAST MA. ONE THING WE'VE NOTICED
THIS WINTER, THE DEPICTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH AI MODELS IS A
BIT MORE COARSE. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE PROVIDED OUTLYING MEMBERS THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, IT APPEARS WITH THE MOST RECENT SET OF GUIDANCE
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME MORE DENSELY PACKED TOGETHER NEAR THE MEAN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCH MARK. GIVEN THE FULL
SUITE OF GFS GUIDANCE BEING OFFSHORE, IT WOULD BE SUGGESTED THIS IS
A SHUTOUT FOR SNOW. WHILE THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE PRESENTS WHAT
ARE LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF 1.0" OF SNOW BETWEEN 1PM SUNDAY
AND 1PM MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL RI AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MA.
IF WE WERE TO GET ANY SNOW, THIS IS WHERE WE'D EXPECTED IT. AS SUCH
WE'VE MAINTAINED 'SLIGHT CHANCE' POPS (15-25%) FOR SAID AREA DURING
THAT PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK, FEATURING A LOW
CHANCE OF REACHING 50F IN PLACES. WHILE DRY, WILL BE MONITORING A
MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY IS SEASONABLE, ALBEIT WARMER, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE PROLONG COLD, IT'S HARD
TO BELIEVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH IS AROUND 35F IN THE INTERIOR AND
40F FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN. PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE 40F ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE HIGH, 70-90%.
PROBABILITIES LOWER WHEN REVIEWING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 50F+, ROUGHLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF THE OCEAN AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. WHILE
DAYS ARE WARM, NIGHTS ARE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, OUR WEATHER IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN OUT
OUT FOR A MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NW WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING W AFTER
21Z. LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
WESTERN MA/CT. WORST CASE SCENARIO, THIS WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A COATING OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LOW CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY
BETWEEN 06-12Z. WORST CASE THIS WOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR AND A
COATING OF SNOW. MORE LIKELY CASE IS A TRACE OF SNOW IN ANY
SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING SWELL ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING, FALLING BELOW 5 FT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WESTERLY WINDS ARE
LIGHT TODAY, 8-12 KT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUST 16-20 KT. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4 FT.
WHILE THIS IS A DRY PERIOD, A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY/MENSCH
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