870
FXUS61 KBOX 132335
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
635 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE COASTAL STORM WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 THIS
WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY LATE TONIGHT-SAT AM.
- COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE POTENTIAL ABOVE NORMAL DAY...PERHAPS 50+ IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY LATE TONIGHT-SAT AM.
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH 40 SAT
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY SAT
NIGHT WITH LESS CLOUDS. MEANWHILE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON AS
WELL AS THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET WILL ONLY SEE LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS MID AND LATE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THE POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH THE SW US TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE EAST,
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SHIFTING OUT TO
SEA AND MOST LIKELY MISSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT MOST, SOME
SHOWERS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS, BUT
MOST MEMBERS ACROSS ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO CENTER AROUND THE
OFFSHORE PASS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR KEEPING THIS
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. WITH THIS EXPECTED TO BE A LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT,
OUR ATTENTION TURNS MORE TOWARDS ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARDS THE EASTERN
US MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME SHALLOW COLD
AIR, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THAT LATER CLIMB TO AROUND 0C AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE IT. PTYPE ISSUES COULD COME UP AGAIN FOR THE SYSTEM FOLLOWING
THIS ONE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT TRACKS. ONE
THING TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR IT WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IN THAT TIMEFRAME THAT WOULD LIKELY IMPACT THAT
SYSTEM. MUCH IS STILL UNKNOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE POTENTIAL ABOVE NORMAL DAY...PERHAPS 50+ IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE GOING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM, AND WINDS SHIFT MORE SW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS (MORE W AS YOU GO HIGHER UP), ADVECTING IN WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING 40F OR
HIGHER. GEPS GUIDANCE EVEN HAS LOW PROBS FOR SPOTS IN CT REACHING
50F, AND IF WE DO GET THOSE SW WINDS WITH GOOD MIXING, THE CHANCE
FOR HIGHS HITTING 50F THERE COULD BE HIGHER. GENERALLY, WE GET BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN
THE 20S AND 30S AS WELL DURING THIS WARMER PERIOD UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
OUTSIDE A BRIEF SPOT FLURRY OR TWO LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DECOUPLING IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH
LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SURGE OF NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUN. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THESE LOCATIONS WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
TOO. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...FRANK/HRENCECIN/MENSCH
MARINE...FRANK/HRENCECIN
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