359
FXUS61 KBOX 010537
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1237 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOOKING SLIGHTLY DRIER ON SUNDAY WITH LESSER SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
AND RAIN LATE TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING VERY COLD BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
- TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BECOMING UNSETTLED WITH A PROLONGED RISK FOR PERIODIC PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING VERY COLD BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY
QUICK BOUT OF MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMES TO AN
END AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY, KNOCKING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S. COLDEST
TEMPS OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN; HOWEVER, THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR MARCH STANDARDS, ONLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID-20S. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LITTLE TO NO WIND IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, LIMITING THE WIND CHILL
FACTOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLIER MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD HAS NARROWED SOMEWHAT WITH
REGARDS TO SUNDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST. ENSEMBLE QPF TOTALS FOR THE
12 AND 18Z MODEL CYCLES HAVE FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW RANGE FROM
0.10-0.20 AT THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES RESPECTIVELY. THESE
CHANGES HAVE BEEN LARGELY THE RESULT OF INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS RESOLVING A DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W LATER SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ALSO SEEMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, WITH THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE STAYING IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, 850 MB FGEN WILL
BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INTENSE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. GIVEN THESE
CHANGES, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED, WITH A
WIDESPREAD TRACE TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH SOME SPOTS SEEING PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES AT THE WORST. THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE THE HIGH TERRAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS. SNOW WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY, STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND
MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING,
HOURLY SNOW RATES WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER A HALF INCH PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING UNSETTLED WITH A PROLONGED RISK FOR
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE CORE OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS LINGERS OVER OUR REGION. AFTER THEN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY, BEFORE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE NEXT WEEK, MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD
ACTUALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL DAY AND NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOME FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT SHIFT BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT IT WILL
NOT BE ACTUALLY PRECIPITATING THIS ENTIRE TIME. WITHIN THIS LARGER
PERIOD, WE'RE MORE FOCUSED ON TWO SMALLER PERIODS WITH A GREATER
RISK.
THE FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH IS WHEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE PAST OUR REGION. THE
TIMING IS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION, OR COULD EVEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INSTEAD. AT PRESENT, THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT-SNOW-TO-RAIN
SCENARIO GIVEN THE RECENT ARCTIC AIR. THE LATER THE PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF, THE MORE LIKELY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY TYPE. SNOW
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND THE NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS.
THE SECOND PERIOD WE'RE MORE FOCUSED ON LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR REGION GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A PAIR OF
FRONTS. BY THAT TIME THOUGH, IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE WOULD
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASES LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM W TO E BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z THEN GRADUALLY COMES
TO AN END BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z FROM W-E. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE -SN MOVES OFFSHORE. NW-LY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. EXPECTING -SN ARRIVAL 15-16Z AND
DEPARTING 20-21Z. LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. EXPECTING -SN ARRIVAL 14-15Z AND
DEPARTING 19-20Z. LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA
LIKELY, CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHERE SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED. CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE INNER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE
OF SNOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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