234
FXUS61 KBOX 011105
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
605 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, AND VERY COLD AIR ON
MONDAY. GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A WINTRY MIX LATE TUESDAY, BUT THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
-AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 1
INCH.
-ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
-A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
-REMAINING UNSETTLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 1
INCH
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A
BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING STAYING CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH GREATER AGREEMENT ON
SNOW TOTALS, FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF AN INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE 850 MB
FGEN WILL BE STRONGEST. THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. SNOW MOVES WEST TO EAST TODAY, ENTERING THE
BERKSHIRES AROUND 8-9 AM AND DISSIPATING OFFSHORE BETWEEN 2-3 PM.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT, WELL UNDER 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING, MOTHER
NATURE DID NOT GET THE MEMO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -16C MONDAY
MORNING, WITH THE 510 THICKNESS LINE NEARLY REACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS, POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN NW MA. WITH A LITTLE
LEFTOVER WIND FROM THE ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT, THE WIND CHILL INDEX
WILL BE BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY APPROACHING -10 ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. DESPITE THE STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX IN THE
LOW 20S. 850MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT MONDAY; HOWEVER,
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS TO HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. THE
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL COLD AIR TO LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS OUT AS SNOW BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN, THEN RAIN. TIMING OUT OF THESE P-TYPE CHANGES IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WONT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WERE WITHIN 48
HOURS WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN UNTIL THE TIMING OF P-
TYPE CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 4...REMAINING UNSETTLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE ZONAL JET STREAM AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEND
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS EVEN
STAYING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR AHEAD OF A LINE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 14Z-19Z, 17-20Z FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW. VFR BEHIND THE SNOW
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE -SN MOVES OFFSHORE. NW-LY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. EXPECTING -SN ARRIVAL 15-16Z AND
DEPARTING 19-20Z. LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. EXPECTING -SN ARRIVAL 14-15Z AND
DEPARTING 17-18Z. LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA, CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA, SN, CHANCE FZRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE FZRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR
POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHERE SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED. CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE INNER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN
LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...MCMINN/KP
MARINE...MCMINN
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