208
FXUS61 KBOX 040418
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1118 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE WINTRY MIX TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING MORNING FOG. GROWING CONFIDENCE ON A RAIN- TO-
WINTRY MIX TRANSITION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
WARRANTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD CAUSES RISES ON
SMALLER CREEKS AND LARGER RIVERS AS SNOW PACK MELTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION ONGOING NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A COATING AND 2" WITH ICE ACCRETION UP TO
0.10". LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 0.25" POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
OTHERWISE DRIER AND MILDER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO LINGERING FOG.
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS INITIAL PLAIN RAIN THURS, BUT A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED. EXPECT A CHILLY, RAW
FRIDAY AFTER PRECIP ENDS, WITH OVERCAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID
30S.
- PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE
CARDS FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOWMELT COULD CAUSE WITHIN-BANK RISES
ON STREAMS, CREEKS AND LARGER RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MIXED PRECIPITATION ONGOING NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A COATING AND 2" WITH ICE
ACCRETION UP TO 0.10". LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 0.2" POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW AT THIS TIME) IS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SW TO NE AS THIS IS WRITTEN, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM;
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-90,
REACHING UP TO 2". MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE CAN EXPECT AROUND A COATING
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM, AS MIDLEVEL WARM AIR MOVES IN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST OF I-95 WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FREEZING
RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW. ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER
HILLS, RANGING BETWEEN 0.1" TO EVEN 0.2" IN SOME SPOTS. UNTREATED
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN ICY TONIGHT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY SIT AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WITH
AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES MORE MARGINALLY ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE DRIER AND MILDER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO LINGERING FOG.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND CONTINUED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AND BLACK
ICE FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR
COULD LEND TO SOME FREEZING FOG IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, TOO. DEPENDING
ON HOW LONG ANY FOG STICKS AROUND, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
ALSO BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
VALLEY WHERE FOG HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
NOON GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THERE, ASIDE FROM ANY
LINGERING FOG. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK USING
CONSRAW AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND DO REACH 50F IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
MID TO LOW 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS THAT SEE LINGERING FOG, THE SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING TODAY'S/TONIGHT'S SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER, MILDER CONDITIONS. THE MIDLEVELS DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND 0C-4C AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND 5C-7C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CALMER PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH, AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS INITIAL PLAIN RAIN
THURS, BUT A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED. EXPECT A CHILLY, RAW
FRIDAY AFTER PRECIP ENDS, WITH OVERCAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID
30S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN WSWLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURS AND LASTS
INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AS OF TUE LATE-MORNING, AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG AN
ELONGATED, WEST-TO-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD TO SOME EXTENT IN
THAT THURS TO FRI TIMEFRAME. IT NOW APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. ONE COMES IN THURS LATE-AM TO EARLY-PM
WITH INITIAL WARM-ADVECTIVE BURST, ALTHOUGH WILL BE FALLING AS PLAIN
RAIN AND QPF AMTS WITH THIS THURS EVENT LOOK LIGHT.
THE SOMEWHAT BIGGER CONCERN FROM A MESSAGING STANDPOINT HOWEVER
COMES IN DURING THE THURS EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO EARLY ON FRI, AS
A MORE COHERENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TREKS ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, SHALLOW COLDER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
NH/ME SURGES SOUTHWARD IN A COLD-AIR-DAMMING CONFIGURATION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIAL STEADY LIGHT RAIN THURS EVENING
TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCRETING ICING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES,
NORTHERN HILLS OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND IN THE MERRIMACK AND MA
PORTION OF THE CT VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH LESS IMPACTFUL, IT'S NOTABLE
THAT THE SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR IS ROBUST ENOUGH SUCH THAT EVEN
PLAIN RAIN IN LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MASS PIKE COULD BE
MIXED WITH SLEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY FRI AM HOURS, GIVEN
950-925 MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN CT. THERE ARE
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINTIES WHICH STILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED, WHICH INCLUDE HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE WARM FRONT MAKE IT
ON THURS/THURS EARLY EVENING (WHICH AFFECTS HOW SOON WILL ANY WINTRY
PRECIP BEGIN TO DEVELOP), AND ALSO THE EXTENT OF QPF AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS START TO DRY OUT THE LAYER ABOVE 850 MB. CURRENT THINKING
IS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE; NOTE THAT THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP-TYPE-TRANSITION GOING
FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX IS AN ESPECIALLY BAD ONE FROM A ROAD PRE-
TREATMENT STANDPOINT, AS THOSE PRE-TREATMENTS WOULD BE WASHED AWAY
BY THE INITIAL PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN. GIVEN ACTIVE WEATHER/CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ONGOING, WILL REFRAIN FROM HOISTING THOSE
WITH THIS SHIFT BUT THOSE COULD BE FORTHCOMING IN THE COMING
FORECAST UPDATES INSOFAR AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON
THAT SCENARIO.
AS PRECIP ENDS FRI MID MORNING TO NOON FROM WEST TO EAST, FRI
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY AND RAW DAY; TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY
GOING NOWHERE GIVEN BOTH THE STUBBORN OVERCAST BUT ALSO THE SHALLOW
CAD/COLD ADVECTION PROFILE SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON NE WINDS. HAVE MADE SUBSTANTIAL EDITS TO
NBM TEMPS AS ITS USUAL DIURNAL CURVE IS SIMPLY NOT APPROPRIATE FOR
THIS NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SETUP, AND INSTEAD BLENDED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF NAM-BASED TEMPS FOR FRI. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 30S TO MAYBE NEAR 40 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI/MA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES
REMAINS IN THE CARDS FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOWMELT COULD CAUSE
WITHIN-BANK RISES ON STREAMS, CREEKS AND LARGER RIVERS.
ALTHOUGH FRI LOOKS CHILLY AND RAW, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKES PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN. THESE
VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE MID-TEENS CELSIUS! THESE WOULD BE
SOME 15 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL 850 MB TEMPS FOR
EARLY MARCH. WHILE STILL WARM, EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE TEMPERED TO AN
EXTENT AS BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF RH/CLOUD COVER AROUND
AND IT'S NOT LIKELY WE'LL FULLY MIX TO THAT DEPTH. STILL, HIGHS SOME
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD MATERIALIZE FOR SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO EVEN SOME SPOT 60S. RISING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
40S/AROUND 50 WILL ALSO EAT AWAY AT THE STANDING SNOW DEPTH, TOO.
THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE IN AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING LIGHT RAINS. SOME RISES ON RIVERS COULD
BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON NAEFS
MMEFS FORECASTS, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN WATERSHEDS.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN COME TO AN END IN MOST
LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE WE DO
EVENTUALLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AND GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THIS COULD BE A SLOW
PROCESS ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AFTERNOON EXCEPT PERHAPS PARTS OF THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WSW...BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH EVEN LOCALIZED
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE LATE TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING GREATEST
RISK FOR IT BEING MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES MAY BRIEFLY BURN OFF.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN
THAT MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
LIGHT NE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS HOW LONG IT TAKES THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.
THE GRADIENT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS HOW LONG IT TAKES THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.
LOW RISK THIS MAY EVEN TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA, PL, CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA LIKELY, CHANCE
FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LONG S-SW FETCH AND BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS A
RESULT.
SEAS START TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TUESDAY'S DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR WATERS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHIFTS OVER THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. S TO SW WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN
LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MAZ002>012-014-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
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